2016 Panini Score Jared Goff Autograph Cards

Where are all the Jared Goff Score Football base autograph rookie cards?
Something strange is going on with 2016 Panini Score Football.  There seems to be a lack of Jared Goff base autograph rookie cards.  In fact, I've checked eBay, COMC, YouTube, and the Blowout Cards forums, and I've only found one base autograph rookie card -- it was on eBay and is pictured below.

What's strange is that a ton of Jared Goff's autograph parallel cards have popped up and sold on eBay.  I've been keeping track of how many of each parallel that I've seen pop up on eBay, COMC, YouTube, and the Blowout Cards Forums.  By my count, and at the time of this post, I've counted 28 autograph parallels.  And yet... only one base autograph has popped up!  One!  Quite strange to say the least.

For comparison, I checked to see if there was a shortage of Carson Wentz base autographs too.  Nope.  On eBay alone, there appears to be at least twelve base autograph rookie cards which have popped up for sale.

So what gives?  Is the Jared Goff's base rookie autograph super short print?  Maybe.  If you ask me, there are two possibilities.

Possibility #1: Super Short Print
Only one card has popped up on the internet that I have seen.  Granted, there might be other cards out there which have been pulled but just never made it on the internet.  Maybe they were pulled at a LCS and immediately went into somebody's PC.  Maybe they were pulled and were purchased or exchanged on the private market and out of the public eye of the internet.

Even if we account for this possibility, you would think that we would have seen more than just one base autograph rookie card by now.

To put things into perspective, Jared Goff has a total of 182 Score autograph parallel rookie cards:

35 - Showcase
25 - Gold Zone Jumbo
25 - Gold Zone (regular)
25 - Artist's Proof
20 - Red Zone
15 - Artist's Proof Jumbo
10 - Red Zone Jumbo
10 - First Down
6 - End Zone
5 - First Down Jumbo
4 - Printing Plates (black, cyan, magenta, yellow)
1 - Gem Master
1 - End Zone Jumbo

182 Total Autograph parallels.

As of the date of this post, a total of 28 autograph parallels cards have surfaced on the internet.  Those 28 cards represent approximately 15.4% of the total autograph parallel cards available in the entire print run.

Assuming that the autograph parallel cards are fairly evenly (yet still randomly) distributed throughout the entire pack-out process we can assume that since we've seen 15.4% of the autograph parallel cards surface, that approximately 15.4% of the product has been opened so far.

Assuming that 15.4% of the product has been opened so far, and only one base autograph rookie card has been seen, that would mean that there are only about 6 or 7 base autograph rookie cards!

1 = 0.154x
x = 6.5

Imagine that!  That is crazy!  This isn't a wholly ridiculous theory either because these results match the other numbers we've seen so far for the ultra short print parallels like the End Zone parallels and the First Down Jumbo parallels.

To date, I've only seen 1 End Zone autograph parallel card pop up on the internet out of the total print run of 6!

To date, I've also only seen 1 First Down Jumbo autograph parallel card pop up on the internet out of the total print run of 5!

So if Jared Goff's Score base autograph rookie card only has a print run of a mere 6 or 7 cards, and about 15.4% of the product has been opened so far, then that would explain why we've only seen one card pop up on the internet for sale!

Heck, even if we assume that 25% of the product has been opened so far (since not everything which is opened ends up on the internet) and there are 3 other Jared Goff base autograph rookie cards which were pulled but never put on the internet, then that means that the print run is still a very low 16 cards!

4 = .25x
x = 16

The one thing about this possibility which doesn't make sense to me is why Panini would super short print the base autograph rookie card to an amount less than the parallel autograph rookie cards?

Getting a Scorecard parallel autograph rookie card numbered to only 35 is supposed to be more "rare" and "valuable" than the base autograph rookie card.  But if there are only 6, 7, or 16 Jared Goff base rookie autograph cards, then those higher numbered parallel rookie cards aren't as valuable!  Odd to say the least.

You'd think that if the highest Jared Goff autograph parallel rookie card is numbered to 35, that the base autographs (although not numbered) should probably be limited to 100 cards.  That would make perfect sense.  But if there were 100 Jared Goff base autograph rookie cards, and we're assuming 25% of the product has been opened, then we likely would have seen around 25 of the cards pulled so far!  But we haven't and it's not even close.

So the numbers don't lie.  I know we've made some assumptions about how much of the product has been opened so far and how many other base rookie cards there may be out there which never made it onto the internet, but by all accounts the evidence so far suggests that Jared Goff's Score base autograph rookie card is super short printed to a print run as low as 6.

Possibility #2: Insertion Error
The other possibility is that there was a major insertion error in the pack-out process and perhaps the Jared Goff base autograph rookie cards were not evenly (yet still randomly) distributed throughout the entire pack out process.

In other words, perhaps there are 100 base autograph rookie cards in the print run, but 94 of them got packed out in the last 20% of the cases, and only 6 got packed out int the initial 80% of the cases.  This could explain why there has been a lack of rookie cards so far.

As more and more cases are opened, we could, quite suddenly see a bunch more of the autographs pop up on the internet.

This insertion error theory isn't as far fetched as it may sound.  Panini had a huge collation problem in 2014 National Treasures Football, which resulted in major rookie cards for Odell Beckham Jr. and Teddy Bridgewater RPA not being evenly collated into cases during the packout process.  This resulted in an estimated 2000 boxes of 2014 National Treasures Football being opened without a single Odell Beckham Jr. or Teddy Bridgewater RPA being pulled.  You can read about my analysis on that debacle here.

Could this present situation with the Jared Goff Score Football base autographs be similar to the 2014 National Treasures collation debacle?  Possibly.

If this is truly what is happening, then as more and more of the Score cases are opened, then we should start to see more and more of the base autograph cards pop up.  This will likely be a very slow process though since Score isn't a super popular product line within the Panini brand.  Plus, as Panini starts to release its other product lines throughout the year, the collectors will focus on those lines and open those cases instead of Score.

Conclusion
Only time will tell which possibility we are looking at right now.  I will continue to keep an eye out for any other Jared Goff Score base autograph rookie cards.  If they just never pop up at all despite more and more cases being opened, then we could be looking at Possibility #1 -- they're super duper short print.  If all of a sudden as more and more cases get broken that we see a bunch of them pop up all at the same time, then we could be looking at Possibility #2 -- they were unevenly collated during the packout process and only began to appear once those cases with the cards were finally opened.

NFL Draft Is Less Than A Week Away!

The NFL Draft is less than a week away and I'm stoked!

If you PC players from a certain college, now is a great time to buy their cards.  Once the draft happens all the team collectors and the player collectors will be scooping up the rest of what's out there.  I've been taking advantage of the pre-Draft market and buying my favorite college players for fairly cheap.  I'm interested to see what teams draft my guys and in what round they're drafted.

One guy I've been tracking is Oregon State wide receiver Brandin Cooks.  I think he has potential to be a great wide receiver in the NFL despite his smaller size.  I've been charting his 2014 Leaf Metal base prismatic autograph rookie cards for some time now.  It's been interesting to see how the market prices vary over time.  Below is the graph.

This graph follows the eBay sale prices (sale price plus shipping cost) for all of his base prismatic autograph rookie cards.  Thus, I was not tracking any of the shorter printed parallels.  The sale price is on the Y-axis, and the date of sale is on the X-axis.

Each blue dot represents a sale on a given day.  The red dots represent a moving average of the last ten sales.

This graph reveals a few interesting trends.

First, prices start out fairly high when the product first released in late February 2014.  Most of the cards were selling for anywhere between $10 to $15.  Over the next two weeks the average price dropped considerably, at which point cards were selling for anywhere between $6 to $10.

This trend is not unexpected.  Prices for singles are always high immediately after a product's release as the hard core collectors with deep pockets go on eBay buying binges to nab all the cards they want.  Once that event ends, and all the hard core collectors are satisfied, prices tend to drop to more reasonable levels.

But then things start to get interesting about three weeks after the product's release (March 22, 2014 on the graph) -- prices start going back up slowly. This is shown by the slow rise of the red dots. 

Why is this?

This is mostly due to the supply of the cards.  Two weeks after the product's release, the market was flooded with cards.  Just look at all the blue dots around the March 15, 2014 date.  The laws of supply and demand state that if the supply curve increases, but the demand curve stays the same, the equilibrium price will drop.  This is what happened.  Tons of people were breaking Leaf Metal around that time and had started to put the cards up on eBay for sale.  With tons of cards for sale, bidders had plenty of options (cards) to bid on.

But starting three weeks after the product's release, and more noticeably after four weeks following the product's release, the supply of the cards available had gone down.  Notice how few blue dots there are in April and early May.  Less people were opening the product, and less cards were available for purchase on eBay.  The laws of supply and demand state that if the supply curve decreases, but the demand curve stays the same, the equilibrium price will go up.  This is exactly what happened.  With fewer and fewer cards available to buy on eBay, bidders were getting into bidding wars.  Other sells would put cards at above-average Buy-It-Now prices and would actually get buyers making that purchase just because there weren't any other options available. 

It will be extremely interesting to see how the prices will react once Brandin Cooks is drafted.  I imagine that if he is drafted high in the first round, all the people who have been hoarding his autographs will put them up on eBay to sell them to all the team collectors who are PCing their team's draft picks.  This would represent both an increase in the supply curve and an increase in the demand curve.  This could result in prices going up, or staying about the same since the increase demand will be offset by the increased supply. 

On the other hand, if Brandin Cooks is drafted lower than expected, while we still might see a flood of cards return to the market, the demand may remain stagnant.  If this happens, prices might go back down.

One final takeaway from this chart is that if you're looking to flip, timing is always key.  Buy cards a couple weeks after the product's release once prices have gone down to reasonable levels.  Then, sell them later on once the supply has dried up, or right after the draft when demand is likely to spike again.

I'll be updating this chart for at least a month following the draft to see what happens to his prices.  I may even continue updating this chart throughout the entire 2014 season to see how his prices react to his performance.  This should be interesting to follow. 

Leaf Best of Football Unopened Is Riskier Than Risky

When it comes to buying packs (and/or boxes) of sports cards, every sports card collector knows they are taking a risk.  That risk is the possibility you'll get nothing of extraordinary value in that pack -- like all base cards.  Of course, on the other hand, there is always the possibility you might get something totally awesome like a $200 hit.  More often than not, you'll end up getting less money back than what you paid.  That's just the name of the game.  We all know of that risk, and accept it when we buy products.

But one such product takes this risk way above and beyond what I think is reasonable.  That product is 2014 Leaf Best of Football Unopened Edition. (Currently priced at $155 on Blowout Cards as of April 25, 2014.)

In this product you get one cut autograph which is slabbed by BGS, and one sealed football box.  At first thought this product might not seem so bad or so different from buying a hobby box of football cards yourself as you might do every few weeks or every month, but I think it is.

When you choose to buy yourself a hobby box of football cards, you tend to buy what you want and what you like.  Why buy a hobby box of a product whose design you hate?  By choosing a hobby box of a product you like you are ensuring that you're getting a product you like.  This choice is a benefit to you as a consumer.

If you're like me, when you buy a hobby box of football cards, you may also tend to avoid products which have expired redemptions.  Not all companies honor expired redemptions.  Upper Deck and Topps will not honor expired redemptions, but Panini will.  If you're concerned that you might get a hit which is expired and will not be honored by the company that produced that product, then you should avoid that product.  The choice to choose which product to buy in order to avoid expired redemptions is another benefit to you as a consumer.

When you buy a box of 2014 Leaf Best of Football Unopened Edition, you give up both of those benefits.  You don't get to choose which football box you're going to get, thereby running the risk of getting a product you hate.  You also run the risk of getting a football product which has expired redemptions which will not be honored.

In my opinion, losing those two benefits is enough to make me not buy 2014 Leaf Best of Football Unopened Edition.

Now, I know some people might be thinking that there are some benefits to buying this product.  I suppose there are.  Like any other packaged sports card product, you have the chance at hitting some great cards and getting back more money that you paid for the box.  For example, maybe your cut autograph will be Dan Marino.  If it is, that is awesome!  And maybe the football box you get is Topps Five Star Football, Upper Deck Exquisite or Panini National Treasures -- all very expensive hobby boxes which cost more than the $155 you spent to buy the Leaf Best of Football Unopened Edition Box.  More than likely though, you're not going to get a National Treasures box.

One of the box breakers I use frequently (Breakerz Anonymous) did a very nice analysis on the "recover rate" -- the amount of money you'd expect to recoup when you buy a box of 2014 Leaf Best of Football Unopened Edition.  He watched all the available case breaks for this product on YouTube, crunched some numbers, and estimated that the "recovery rate" is 62.1%.

In other words, if you spend $989.95 buying a case of 2014 Leaf Best of Football Unopened Edition, you will on average lose $375.34 for opening it just to see what football boxes and cut autographs are inside.  That figure does not take into account what may be inside the actual football boxes themselves.  Once you open up those football boxes you are likely going to suffer another loss of money as the value of the cards in that box, on average, will not cost more than the value of the sealed box.

Imagine the level of frustration you would have if you paid $155 for a box of 2014 Leaf Best of Football Unopened Edition, you open it up, your cut autograph only worth about $20, and your unopened football box instead was 2013 Topps Magic (Blowout price of $51).  Talk about a brutal punch to the gut.  If you open up that box of 2013 Topps Magic, you're probably only going to get $20 worth of cards in return on average.  So at the end of the day, after spending $155 for a box of 2014 Leaf Best of Football Unopened Edition you could be left with a $20 cut autograph and $20 worth of cards.  That's a "recovery rate" of 25.8%.

One guy on the Blowout Cards forums said he paid close to $200 for a box of this product, got a Joe Schmidt cut autograph ($5 to $10), and his sealed football box was 2010 Topps Chrome Football ($65 on Blowout).  He opened up the Chrome box and didn't even get an autograph!  Things might not have been so bad had he pulled a Tim Tebow, Sam Bradford, or Dez Bryant base rookie card but he didn't even get any of those guys either!  In total, he probably had around $15 worth of cards in the end.  That's a "recovery rate" of 7.5%. 

That last anecdote was a brutal one, and probably one of the worst ones you'd see.  Could anything be worse than that?  Yeah.  How about getting a product full of expired redemptions.  I couldn't find the tweet or post, but I remember seeing one guy complaining about getting an old Upper Deck product, ended up getting a redemption for a high valued card, but that redemption was expired!  (Upper Deck does not honor expired redemptions.)  So this guy basically had a "recovery rate" of 0% from the football box.  I can't remember who exactly he got for his cut autograph but it wasn't anyone super valuable.

Frankly, I don't know why people buy this product.  I'm guessing people just don't think enough about all the product's risks.  If they did, I think they would realize that the risk is just way too much to endure.  The possibility of getting a product you hate makes it risky.  The possibility of getting a low-value sealed football box makes it riskier.  And then the possibility getting a product with expired redemptions makes it insanely risky. 

I don't blame Leaf for making this product, but as a consumer I'd stay far away from this product and would never buy a box of it for myself. 

The Inefficiency and Added Expense of Box Breaks

What got me back into the card collecting hobby after a long hiatus was this thing called "box breaks."  Box breaks are when multiple people come together to split a box of cards.  The cost is split among the participants, as are the cards.  Thus, the cost of buying into a break is a fraction of what a whole box would cost for one person, but you also stand a lesser chance of getting cards from that box too.

At first, box breaks sounded like a fantastic way for me to participate in collecting cards without breaking the bank.  I could buy into a few box breaks at a fraction of the price of a whole hobby box, and still have a chance at getting some cool cards.  It seemed like a win-win scenario.

Well, after participating in box breaks for over a year, I'm convinced it's not a win-win scenario. 

Part of the problem with box breaks is that they're just so damn addicting.  They're fun.  It's exciting.  You never know what team or what cards you'll get.  There's an element of chance, and randomness.  If you like gambling, then you'll probably like box breaks.  Once you start participating in box breaks it's extremely hard to stop.

Another problem with box breaks is that because they're so addicting I think it's a lot easier to spend more money on box breaks than had you just bought yourself a single hobby box and stopped there.  When you think about it, it's much easier to say to yourself, "I'm going to buy a couple of spots in a box break tonight and spend $20," than to say to yourself "I'm going to buy a whole hobby box for myself and spend $150."  But if you lack a lot of self-control, like I do, then you end up spending $20 here, $20 there, and soon enough you're spending $20 or more every night buying into box breaks.  Pretty soon you've spent way more money on box breaks than you would have had you just bought yourself one hobby box!

It took me a long time to learn this lesson, but before you buy into a box break you should ask yourself: how much am I willing to spend on this product?

If you're only willing to spend $40 on this product, then box breaks are the way to go. 
If you're willing to spend $200 on this product, then I think it's best that you just buy yourself as many hobby boxes as you can with that money.  You certainly shouldn't spend that $200 on box breaks for this product.  Why?

Within the cost to buy into each box break is the supplies and shipping cost for the breaker to ship the cards to you.  That cost is usually built into every single spot in a break.  This added cost effectively reduces your ability to purchase as many cards had you just bought a sealed hobby box and had it shipped to you.  Don't believe me?  Let's do the math.

Let's just say you're interested in buying a NFL product which is currently selling for $150 per hobby box.

If you go the box break route, the box breaker will likely be charging about $7 per spot for a random NFL team.  (Calculated by:  ($150 / 32) + $2.31 for shipping)  If you're willing to spend $200 on this product, then you could theoretically buy about 28.6 break spots.  (Calculated by: $200 / $7 per spot = 28.6 spots)  Let's round that up to 29 break spots.  In other words, you could technically buy 29 break spots such that you will own 29 out of the 32 NFL teams in the break. 

On the other hand, if you went the hobby box route, you could buy a hobby box for $150, pay about $10 to have it shipped to you, for a total of $160.  That's a whole hobby box, the box breaking equivalent of all 32 NFL teams (or spots) for only $160.  That's a price of only $5 per NFL team.  (Calculated by: $160 / 32 teams = $5 per team)  Paying $5 per NFL team sounds a lot better than paying $7 per NFL team.

Heck, with that leftover $40 out of the $200, you could then buy yourself five more $7 spots ($35) in a box break.  In total, you would have the equivalent of 37 box break spots for $195 in comparison to 29 box break spots had you just spent your full $200 on box breaks. 

Now does that make sense?

Time and time again, I see people spend hundreds of dollars buying into box breaks and spending more money on box breaks than they do the actual price of a hobby box.  This is inefficient. 

Basically, if you're willing to spend an amount of money on a product which is more than the cost of a hobby box, then you should just go ahead and buy yourself a hobby box of the product and avoid box breaks.  Alternatively, if the amount of money you're willing to spend on a product is less than the cost of a hobby box, then you are okay to buy into a box break as since that is the only way you would be able to afford a chance at getting those cards without buying an actual hobby box. 

Caveat: The above analysis is only applicable to random team box breaks or draft-your-team box breaks.  Pick-your-team box breaks are a different animal and if you're a team collector then buying into pick-your-team box breaks is infinitely times more efficient than buying multiple hobby boxes to try and get the cards for your team.