Fairfield Repack Box #1

I got suckered into buying one of those Fairfield repack boxes at Target.  I could see that one of the packs was a hobby pack of 2015 Topps Platinum Football.  For $15, I figured it would have more value than a regular retail box break due to the hobby pack.

Upon opening the box I was pretty disappointed.  Most of the packs in there were junk.  There was some old Notre Dame pack, junk Score packs, and a bunch of 2013 Upper Deck USA Football packs.

I basically was hoping to just get lucky and hit something in the one pack of Platinum since all the other packs were worthless.  I even contemplated throwing all the other packs away without even opening them.

My curiosity got the better of me and I decided to open up everything.  I started the weird Notre Dame pack of cards.  It was junk.

Then I picked up the 2013 Score Football retail packs.  One pack was thicker than the other.  I just figured it was one of those decoy cards.  To my surprise, there was actually a hit in there!

It was a Ryan Mathews Future Franchise Fabrics relic jersey card!  It even had a little pen mark on the fabric too.  Has Ryan Mathews become a franchise player?  Nope.

I then started to open up the rest of the junk packs.  I had no idea what these 2013 Upper Deck USA Football packs were.  They looked like high school or college cards.  Either way, I figure it to be more retail junk.  But then...

I hit this crazy triple autograph!  What?!  I was shocked.  My jaw hit the floor.  I've never pulled a triple autograph before.  This was nuts.  Even if it was a triple autograph from some off the wall set with some unknown players on it, this was still pretty cool!

The three players picture are Addison Olah, Chad Taylor, and Damian Halstead.  Apparently they were Canadian high school football players.  Now they're playing in college, but none of them appear to be at any top football schools so there is little hope that any of them will be NFL prospects.

For $15, this is one of the most surprising breaks I've ever had.  My expectations were practically zero, and I ended up getting way more than I bargained for.

Oh, and that 2015 Platinum Football hobby pack?  Yeah, got nothing.

Panini's 2014 National Treasures Football Collation Debacle

If you're a football card collector who likes high end cards, then by now you are aware of Panini's debacle with 2014 National Treasures Football.  And in case you aren't aware of it then I'll summarize the situation right now: a whole week after 2014 National Treasures Football was released there were still no Odell Beckham Jr. and Teddy Bridgewater RPAs, or booklets.

This incident spawned a huge discussion on the Blowout Cards forums.

Everyone agreed that it was extremely unusual that no Odell Beckham Jr. and Teddy Bridgewater RPA or booklet redemptions had been hit even after a whole week since the product's launch.  Between all the cases being broken all across the nation in hobby shops, and in online breaks, by now at last a couple of each should have surfaced.

The conspiracy theorists believed that Panini purposely withheld those cards -- arguably the two biggest cards of the two biggest players in the 2014 rookie class -- to drive up sales not only in successive shipment waves of the National Treasures product, but also in other Panini products like Spectrum Football.

Other people who were less willing to immediately jump to the conclusion that Panini was up to no good believed that this could be an honest collation mistake or error.

I gave my two cents in the thread and noted how the chances of NOT seeing an Odell Beckham Jr. or Teddy Bridgewater RPA or booklet redemption was practically impossible if we assumed that 500 cases of National Treasures had been broken within a week.

Below is my full comment.

There are 150,552 cards in the set. There are supposed to be 8 cards per box but most boxes have 10 or 11. Let's just choose 11. (The higher number actually works in Panini's favor.) Divide 150,552 by 11, and that means there are 13,686 boxes in the entire production.  

There are 312 total OBJ and Teddy RPAs 

Let's assume that none of the OBJs and Teddy RPAs will ever appear in the same box. Divide 312 OBJ/Teddy boxes by 13,686 total boxes, and that means there is a .0228 chance of hitting one of those cards in the very first box of NT opened.  

Alternatively, there is a .9772 chance of NOT hitting one of those cards in the very first box of NT opened. Expressed as a fraction that's (13,686-312)/13,686 or 13,374/13,686.
As each box of NT is opened and a OBJ/Teddy isn't hit, then the probability of hitting one of those cards goes up ever so slightly.  

Similarly, as each box is opened and one isn't hit, the probability of not hitting one in the next box goes down. Number-wise, it looks something like this... 

(13,374/13,686) x (13,373/13,685) x (13,372/13,684) x etc. as each box is opened. 

Now, let's assume that 500 cases have been broken by now which is probably a reasonable assumption. There are 4 boxes per case. So that's 2000 boxes opened. (2000 boxes would also represent around 15% of the production run) We need to do that above equation 2000 times. 

What's the probability of opening 2000 boxes of NT and not hitting a OBJ or Teddy RPA?  

Expressed as an equation it looks something like this: 

(13,374! / 11,374!) / (13,686! / 11,686!) 

None of the scientific calculators I could find could hand this calculation because the numbers are too big, but it should be pretty close to zero and I think we can show that another way. 

When figuring out a probability and a past event influences a future event, it's called conditional probability. Our situation is conditional since once a card is pulled, it is removed from the available pool and not replaced.  

But because our numbers are so big, we can actually treat this as the opposite of conditional probability (unconditional probability?).  

As we found out earlier, the chances of a OBJ/Teddy RPA NOT being pulled from the very first box of NT is (13,686-312)/13,686 or .9772. Even if 2000 boxes were opened and a OBJ/Teddy RPA still hadn't been hit, then the probability of NOT hitting one in the next box opened would be (13,686-2,000-312)/(13,686-2,000) or (11,374/11,686) or .9733. 

.9733 isn't too different from .9772, so we can treat this entire calculation as unconditional probability (probability with replacement).  

So, if the probability of NOT hitting a OBJ/Teddy RPA is .9772, and 2000 boxes have been opened, then the probability of that happening is... 

.9772^2000 which is 9.27^-21 or basically zero.  

Even if we used a lower probability like .9733 and 2000 boxes were opened, then the probability is still 3.11^-24 or basically zero. 

For comparison, even with a probability of .9733 and only 200 boxes being opened (50 cases), the probability of still not hitting a OBJ/Teddy RPA would be .00446 or about 0.446% chance of happening.   

In short, if we assume that 500 cases of National Treasures have been broken (2000 boxes) within a week of the product's release, then the chances of NOT hitting an Odell Beckham Jr. or Teddy Bridewater RPA (just RPAs and not booklet redemptions) is practically zero, or about 0.00000000000000000002116%.

What does this all mean?

It means that without a doubt the Odell Beckham Jr. and Teddy Bridgewater RPAs were NOT randomly distributed throughout the 2014 National Treasures production run.  This is a fact.  The above math, if accurate, and I think it is, proves that it is about as close to statistically impossible for this to happen by random chance.

If Odell Beckham Jr. and Teddy Bridgewater RPAs were randomly distributed throughout the 2014 National Treasures production run, then statistically, collectors should have seen a handful of them pop up already whether it be on eBay or online box breaks.  Clearly, something went wrong when National Treasures was packed out.

Now, whether this was an intentional act by Panini or a mere innocent collation error we don't know.  Panini haters are quick to assume it was an intentional act by Panini, but I could see this being a simple innocent collation error too.  Don't get me wrong, I am not completely dismissing the idea that Panini did something intentional, but I think without any evidence proving their guilt that the most we can say happened is that there was a horrible collation error.

My guess is that Panini was still waiting on those cards to come back signed, but in the mean time they started the packout process believing that they'd get the cards back in time before the packout process was complete.  But while the packout process was still in progress, they realized they wouldn't get those cards back in time before packout was complete so they needed to insert redemptions for those cards.  They began inserting redemptions into the production run at that point in time, but by that time the first wave of cases had already been packed, sealed, and prepared for shipping to distributors -- all without any Odell Beckham Jr. and Teddy Bridgewater RPAs in them.  Panini then completes the packout process.  From their point of view, the RPA redemption cards have all been packed out and they've done nothing wrong.  But in reality, because the RPA redemption cards were inserted into the production run mid-packout, the boxes which had already been packed out and sealed had none of those cards.  Meaning collectors who bought those initial cases had ZERO chance of hitting an Odell Beckham Jr. or Teddy Bridgewater RPA.

Is there a moral to this story?  If any, I suppose it's that pre-ordering a product is a gamble.  Who knows what production issues it might contain.  Topps has had its share of problems too.  Most recently its 2015 Topps Tribute Baseball release was recalled due to a large portion of the autograph cards being smeared.  Also, Topps' 2013 Five Star Football release was plagued by many of the cards suffering from ink stains on their edges from the cardboard boxes that they came in.  (See my blog post on that issue here.)  Had a consumer waited until after the release of the product then they could have avoided these problems.

Topps seems to have a little more trust in the collecting community than Panini.  It may not be a lot, but it's there.  Panini on the other hand has proven themselves very adept at losing consumer confidence by using questionable patches in their products, putting the wrong patches on cards for players, putting questionable player autograph stickers in their products, and now having major collation issues with their products.  Since Panini will now have the exclusive NFL license for football cards starting this year, I want to like them.  I'm trying to like them.  But they sure are making it difficult.  Clearly they have a lot of room for improvement, and it would be nice to see them make some improvements.

Eddie Lacy Mailday From Upper Deck!

About three months ago I hit a Eddie Lacy Greats of the Game redemption in a box break with JD Jammin Sports Cards. 

On Friday I got the signed card in the mail!

This is an awesome card.  I've only seen two other redemptions for this card on eBay.  Both sales averaged $30.  Considering that there are only three in total circulation at this time, I think it should be worth more.  It's going in my PC for now. 

2013 Topps Five Star Football is Awesome But Beware of Ink Stains on Corners

Having watched a ton of 2013 Topps Five Star Football box and case breaks on YouTube, I finally gave into buying some singles.  I had heard that some boxes contained cards which had black ink stains on the corners.

Mindful that the cards might have ink stains, I took to eBay and bought some singles.  I was careful the entire time to check the pictures and scans to see if the corners were stained.  More often than not, you just couldn't tell from the pictures.  Furthermore, as since most eBay sellers are looking to sell their cards for the highest price possible, they will not disclose any defects to the card anyways.  Basically, you're basically just buying blind. 

My first single came in the mail a few days ago.  It was a gorgeous card of a player that I PC, but one of its corners clearly had a black stain to it.

Black ink stains on the corner edge.

I notified the seller.  He has offered a refund, and claims that they didn't see the black ink stain on the corner.  Who knows whether they really did or not.  I suppose if they are a volume seller who doesn't have a lot of time to take an additional five seconds to look at the card's four corners then I guess it's plausible.  More than likely the seller probably knew about the stain, and didn't want to disclose it hoping for whomever bought the card to not see it or not return it.

Be aware when you're buying Five Star singles that the cards may have ink stains on the corner.  It's unfortunate that Topps is having this problem with this product, because it is ruining otherwise beautiful cards. 

The Pitfalls to Participating in High-End Case Breaks By the Team

Participating in case breaks is always a risk.  Participating in high-end case breaks can sometimes be extremely risky.  Today, that risk caught up to me big time. 

I had bought into a case break of 2013 Topps Five Star Football on the Blowout Cards forums.  The format was random teams.  I ended up with the Cleveland Browns. 

The checklist for the product wasn't out at the time so nobody really knew for sure whether they had a good team or not.  Of course, some teams are pretty much guaranteed to be good no matter what (e.g. Saints, Packers, Broncos).  Other teams you know will be good based on the amount of big name rookies on that team which attended the 2013 Rookie Photo Shoot (Rookie Premiere).  And then there are those teams which are lacking any big name rookies, and who typically aren't your historically great team -- like the Cleveland Browns. 

It was my hopes that maybe there would be some awesome veteran signatures for the Browns in 2013 Five Star but my hopes were crushed when the checklist came out.  Not a single Browns player in base checklist, nor any Browns players having single hits.  The only Browns player in the checklist is Brandon Weeden who appears on a octo-patch book with seven other players.  Even if that card was pulled in the case break, I'd still only have a 1/8 chance of getting that card. 

So, when all is said and done, I bought into a case break, got a shit team, and have about a 0.00001% chance of getting anything from the break -- literally. 

It was only around $40 to buy into the break so it wasn't a huge waste of money.  I knew the risk, but damn.  I sure am kicking myself for buying into this break despite knowing the risks. 

2013 Topps Five Star Football Is Live!

2013 Topps Five Star Football cards are going live!  A handful have already hit eBay at the moment.  The cards are looking amazing!  Just take a look at some of these beauties!

DROOL.

JAW DROPPING.

AMAZING ON-CARD SIGNATURE!

Wow.  These cards are like the stuff of dreams.  So much on-card action going on.  No stickers!  Beautiful design, imagery, and layout.  I think this stuff blows National Treasures out of the water in terms of looks.  It's not even close. 

I will have to buy myself a few of these beauties. 

Box Breaker Review: JD Jammin Sports Cards

I've been dying -- absolutely dying -- to buy some 2013 Fleer Retro Football.  I love the base card design.  I like a lot of the retro inserts (although not all of them).  I like Upper Deck products.  But unfortunately, it didn't seem like a lot of box breakers were breaking Fleer Retro.  The product isn't for everyone.  Not everyone likes the retro designs.  Admittedly, the checklist is filled with a lot of no-name players.  It always sucks when one of your autographs is a player who wasn't drafted at all.  But despite that risk, I just had to buy into a break for some Fleer Retro.

To help me find someone who was breaking Fleer Retro I turned to Google.  On the first page was a box break listing by a breaker who I've never heard of: JD Jammin Sports Cards. 

Was this person legit?  I did my due diligence.  I watched a few of JD's breaks on Ustream, and recap videos on YouTube.  He seemed legit.  He definitely had a very nice looking website, at least.

I decided to give him a shot and bought three spots in a 3-box box break. 

Freakin' love the retro base card design!

When it came time to break, I got the Green Bay Packers, Atlanta Falcons, and the Cleveland Browns.  The Falcons and the Browns are pretty bad teams to have in 2013 products, but the Packers are perhaps the best team to have!  I was hoping to see some Eddie Lacy pop out.

Show me that Eddie "Circle Button" Lacy #BOOM!

And I did!  Got myself a few nice Eddie Lacy base rookie cards and a Eddie Lacy Greats of the Game autograph redemption!  This is my first Eddie Lacy autograph and it's staying in the PC.

Lovin' these retro inserts!

And I also got a trio of nice Fleer Showcase inserts of Eddie Lacy, Jonathan Franklin, and Chris Harper (not pictured).

When my cards arrived in the mail I was very impressed with the shipping.  JD had put all the base cards in card sleeves, put my better inserts in toploaders, and put my Eddie Lacy base rookie cards in toploaders too.  The rest of the sleeved base cards were then stuck between the toploaded cards and sealed shut in a team bag.  The sealed team bag was then placed in a padded envelope.  The care in shipping and protecting these cards was excellent and was like night and day in comparison to the shipping by another breaker I've used before (that blog post can be found here).

Nice background.  Nice high-quality video.
All packs stay on the screen.

Overall I was very impressed with JD Jammin Sports Cards.  The box break video quality is high.  All the breaks are recorded -- as they should be -- and available for later viewing on Ustream.  Shorter recap videos are on YouTube if you just want to see the hits and other notable cards.  The packs of cards always stayed on the screen so there was no possibility of switching out packs or other foul play.  I'm not sure if a backup camera was used, but so long as the internet doesn't go out then it shouldn't be an issue (of course, when the internet goes out that's why you need a backup camera to maintain the utmost breaker integrity).

JD Jammin Sports cards has one of the nicest box break websites that I've ever seen.  He keeps his followers and customers informed of his upcoming breaks via blog posts and tweets.  You can earn "Jamminpoints" every time you buy into a break which you can then use to buy more stuff (supplies, cards, buy into more breaks) on his website.  He's definitely trying to build brand loyalty in a market place which is saturated with other breakers and where customer loyalty runs deep.  A new feature on the website are "pack breaks" where you can choose which pack of cards you want to buy from a hobby box.  This idea isn't novel but the execution he is utilizing is.  Each pack will be numbered with a sharpie before the break starting from the top pack on the left side and ending on the bottom pack on the right side.  When you buy your packs you choose which pack you want to buy based on the pack number. 

Would I break with JD Jammin Sports Cards again? 

Definitely.  He's one of the most professional box breakers I've every used. 

Four Packs of 2013 Upper Deck Football

I made my first visit to the closest LCS to me.  I had been meaning to go there for a long time but I never really felt the need to since I could buy my cards online and have them shipped to me.  But one day I found myself in the area so I popped into the LCS to have a gander. 

The LCS was a nice little shop, stuffed to the brim with cards.  You would think that the place was a mess because it was so full of stuff but it was actually very well organized and neat. 

I wanted to pick up some 2014 NFL products but the shop was all sold out of its stock of 2014 Upper Deck Football.  I was disappointed.  That's all I really wanted to buy.  It felt wrong to leave the store without buying something since it was my first time to this LCS so I bought four 2013 Upper Deck Football packs.  They were $5.50 each.  That seemed a little expensive to me but having not done any research to compare prices I didn't know any better.  I wish I could say that I got something good out of those four packs but I really didn't.

Star Rookies
Brandon Ford
DeVonte Holloman
D.J. Swearinger
Justin Hunter
Le'Veon Bell
Logan Ryan
Margus Hunt
Terrance Williams

Premiere Prospects
Denard Robinson

Oh, and I got four really nice decoy cards too.  I was hoping for a hit, but I knew that I might not get one.  2013 Upper Deck Football has three hits per box and 20 packs per box.  Whenever you're picking packs from an already-opened hobby box, you're always running the risk of picking packs which don't have a hit in them.  It's very possible that these packs are the leftovers from a hobby box which already had its hits bought by another customer.  I knew this, but what can I say?  I have self-control issues.  I knew I shouldn't have bought any packs. 

At least the base card photography is nice.

And just to demonstrate how it's not worth it to buy loose packs from a hobby box, let's do some more mathematics. 

Right now on Steel City Collectibles, a hobby box of 2013 Upper Deck Football costs $79.95.  We'll just call it $80 even.  If you bought yourself a hobby box, after tax, the total would likely be around $85 to $87 depending on the tax.  Using the $87 box price, that comes out to $4.35 per pack.  Basically, by buying individual packs of cards I ended up paying $1.15 more per pack of cards than had I just bought myself a hobby box. 

What really punches me in the gut even more right now though, is that the price of $79.95 for a box of 2013 Upper Deck Football is its MSRP price.  Boxes for this product can be found and bought for as little as $40 to $50.  Even at the price of $50, that's a per-pack price of $2.50 and a lot less than $5.50 per pack. 

Moral of the story: Buying by the whole hobby box is much more efficient than buying by the pack.