2014 Upper Deck SP Authentic Football Box Break

Here's the 2014 Upper Deck SP Authentic Football box that I purchased a few weeks ago at a card show.

The guy at the card show was selling the box for only $85.  I felt like that was a pretty good deal since Blowout Cards is selling hobby boxes for $100.

I admit that it was a little sketchy buying sealed hobby boxes from a random guy at a card show.  In every case of 2014 SP Authentic, three of the boxes have those Super FX bonus packs.  This guy probably bought a case of this product for himself, opened some of the boxes, hit the three boxes which contained the Super FX bonus packs, and then decided to sell the rest of the sealed boxes.

I knew that when I was buying the box that there was a very high chance that it wasn't going to contain a Super FX pack.  But since the guy was asking only $85 for the box, I was willing to take that risk.  After all, there were still three autographs in the box, and those autographs could be awesome autographs too.

Sure enough, when I opened up the box, it didn't have a Super FX bonus pack sitting on top.  That didn't really bother me because only a few packs into the box I hit an awesome Odell Beckham, Jr. Future Watch insert numbered to 99.

I felt like regardless of what the three autographs were in this box, that this one card made the entire box worth it.  I felt even luckier when a few packs later I hit a Johnny Manziel Future Watch insert numbered to 999.

If only Johnny Manziel were a good NFL QB...

My first autograph was Chris Borland which is quite timely considering that this guy just retired after one season in the NFL due to brain trauma concerns.

The second autograph was David Fales, backup QB for the Chicago Bears.

And the autograph patch was Logan Thomas.  (Barf)

The card itself is gorgeous.  The cards look much better in person than they do in pictures and scans.  The patch autograph card is so nice that I might actually keep this card... maybe.

I really like how Upper Deck pays attention to the back of the card, and puts effort into making the back of the card just as important as the front.  Panini could learn a lesson from this.

Not a terrible hobby box.  The Odell Beckham, Jr. Future Watch insert is probably the hit of the break.   

BGS Surface Subgrade

I found another card which has a final grade more than 0.5 higher than the lowest subgrade.

Remember, the general rule is that your final grade can only be 0.5 higher than your lowest subgrade except when your lowest subgrade is surface.  When your lowest subgrade is surface, and all your other subgrades are significantly higher than the surface subgrade (such as 1.0 or more), then your final grade can be 1.0 higher than the surface subgrade.

In this dual relic card of Aaron Rodgers and Jason Campbell, you can see that the surface subgrade of 7 is the lowest subgrade on the card.  The other subgrades are all significantly higher than the surface subgrade by at least 2.5 points.  This brings the card's final score up from what would normally be a 7.5 to a 8.0.

Be sure to this previous blog post, and this one too, for more information on BGS grading.

2014 Topps Inception Football Box Break

I picked up three hobby boxes from a local card show.  I ended up buying 2014 Topps Inception, 2014 Upper Deck SP Authentic, and 2014 Topps Platinum.

Here's the Inception box.

This Inception box was only $65.  I think that was a pretty good deal considering that Blowout Cards is selling Inception boxes for $82 right now.  What's crazy is that another guy at the card show was also selling Inception boxes and he wanted $95 per box!  Um, no.

I really like Inception.  The cards are high quality.  Can't complain about getting this nice looking Tom Savage patch autograph.

When I was looking at the back of the card I noticed that the little biography talks about him playing for UCLA.  This is obviously a mistake since Tom Savage played his last year at Pittsburgh.  The biography information is for UCLA's quarterback Brett Hundley.  How could Topps make this mistake?  Hudley was still in college in 2014.  He hadn't even turned pro yet!

Even though this is an error card, the error will not impact the card's value.  I can only see this card being worth more than usual due to its error if Tom Savage some day becomes a star.

The other autograph in the pack was Terrance West.  I like the on-card autograph, but geez what a lazy signature.

The final hit was a De'Anthony Thomas patch card.  You can barely see three colors in the patch window.

The parallel card was a Julius Thomas magenta numbered to 75.

Four Packs of 2014 SP Authentic Football

I picked up four packs of 2014 Upper Deck SP Authentic Football from my local LCS.  I wanted to get a box, but they were all out so I just bought their remaining loose packs.

This is my first time seeing these cards in person.  I've been dying to get my hands on these since they came out but I've been busy spending all my money on other products that I just never got around to it.

Geez, Upper Deck does a really nice job with these cards.  The base cards are gorgeous.

It really is a shame that Upper Deck is losing its college license to Panini.  Upper Deck has some of the most timeless, classic, and clean designs of all the major card companies.

Didn't hit any autographs in the four packs, but I did hit two Future Watch inserts.  I remember this design from when I was a kid.  Such a classic and awesome design.

The original 2000 SP Authentic Football cards were stamped along the left and right edges.  The 2014 cards aren't stamped; however, Upper Deck put a gloss on the card in those areas to simulate the stamp.  You can't see it on the scans, but it's there.

Even the back of the cards are well designed.  Panini, on the other hand, practically ignores the back of cards and doesn't make the back informative and worth reading.

Sigh.  I'm going to miss Upper Deck's college stuff.  I guess I better buy up as much of this as possible before it's all gone.

Becket Grading Service (BGS) Surface Subgrade

In this previous post I talked about how the final BGS grade is calculated.  As I stated in that post, the general rule is that your final BGS grade can only be 0.5 higher than your lowest subgrade, unless two of your subgrades share the lowest subgrade score in which case your final BGS grade will be the lowest subgrade.

For example, a card with Centering 9.5, Corners 9.5, Edges 9.5, and Surface 9.0 will receive a final grade of 9.5.  A card with Centering 9.5, Corners 9.5, Edges 9.0, and Surface 9.0 will receive a final grade of 9.0.

This rule will work for about 90% of BGS graded cards.  Now, about that other 10%...

Sometimes, when one subgrade is drastically lower than the rest of the subgrades, the final score can be higher than 0.5 more than the lowest subgrade.  This is especially true of the surface subgrade.

The surface subgrade in BGS grading seems to be weighted the least of the four subgrades.

Take a look at the following cards which received a final grade higher than 0.5 more than the lowest subgrade.

Applying the general rule to the Aaron Rodgers card, it should have received a final grade of 7.5 because that is 0.5 higher than the lowest subgrade, but the card received a final grade of 8.0!

Applying the general rule to the Jose Abreu card, it should have received a final grade of 9.0 because that is 0.5 higher than the lowest subgrade, but the card received a final grade of 9.5!

What's going on here?!

The surface subgrade is one of those weird exceptions where if it is drastically lower than the rest of the other subgrades, the final grade can actually be 1.0 higher than the lowest (in this case the surface) subgrade.

But what about the following card?

The surface subgrade on this Tom Brady card is 8.0, and is lower than the other subgrades by 1.0.  Yet this card's final grade is still a 8.5 and not a 9.0.

What's going on here?!

As far as I can tell, there must be some hidden rule coming into play for the Tom Brady card which prevents its final grade from being a 9.0 despite the fact that all the other subgrades are at least 1.0 or higher than the surface subgrade.

My guess is that the aggregate of the difference between all the other subgrades and the surface subgrade is what determines if the final grade can actually be 0.5 higher than the surface subgrade, or get bumped up 1.0 higher than the surface subgrade.

For example, on the Aaron Rodgers card, the aggregate difference between all the other subgrades compared to the surface is:  (9-7) + (8-7) + (9-7) = 5.

On the Jose Abrue card, the aggregate difference between all the other subgrades compared to the surface is: (10-8.5) + (10-8.5) + (10-8.5) = 4.5.

But, on the Tom Brady card, the aggregate difference between all the other subgrades compared to the surface is: (9-8) + (9-8) + (9.5-8) = 3.5.

So, based on these three cards, it appears as if the aggregate difference between all the other subgrades compared to the surface must 4.5 or higher for the card's final grade to get bumped up 1.0 more than the surface subgrade rather than the usual 0.5.

It is possible that the aggregate difference between all the other subgrades compared to the surface must only be 4.0 or higher for the card's final grade to get bumped up 1.0 more than the surface subgrade rather than the usual 0.5, but since we don't have a card with those exact subgrades I cannot confirm that theory.

So, what does this all mean?

I still think the general rule that your final BGS score can only be 0.5 higher than the lowest subgrade is still the easiest way to remember how 90% (or more!) of BGS grades will work; however, I think it's good to know and keep in mind that the surface subgrade is one of those exceptions.  Remember, if the aggregate difference between all the other subgrades compared to the surface is 4.5 or more, then the card's final grade can be 1.0 higher than the surface subgrade.

Finding BGS 9.5s on COMC.com

As a buyer, one of the best benefits of COMC.com are the high quality scans that they have of the cards on the site.  They have some of the highest quality scans you'll find for cards you're about to buy.  I don't know of any other website which takes so much time and effort to supply these scans.

Usually, when you buy cards on eBay you're forced to judge the condition of the card from crappy camera phone pictures or crap scans of the card through a super-scratched up toploader.  The condition of the card is often a guessing gaming, and always a significant gamble.  Sometimes the eBay sellers don't even provide a picture or scan of the back of the card so it's impossible to know the condition of the card's back!  It's basically like trying to view a card through a dirty and scratched up window, and only looking at the front.  That is hard.  I've been burned many times because of this, having received cards which had damage and flaws which were not visible in the crap pictures and scans.

COMC tries to avoid this dilemma by providing the highest quality scans possible so you can see every print spot, see every dinged corner, and see every chipped edge.  Honestly, the only thing which I do find hard to see on COMC's scans are any gouges or scratches on the surface of the card itself, but these would be hard to see anyways on most any camera pictures or scans.

Thanks to the high quality scans on COMC, it's very possible to find raw cards for sale which are likely BGS 9.5 cards once graded.

I was lucky enough to find one when viewing Aaron Rodgers rookie cards.  Below are the actual COMC scans which I saw when viewing the card.
 

Aaron Rodgers Bowman Rookie Card

By carefully looking at all the scans of these cards, I was able to pick out which ones were in the best shape.  I carefully examined the front of the card to see which ones had the best centering.  If the centering was perfect, or at least what I would deem to be an acceptable 9.0 centering subgrade, then I checked the corners and edges.  In this case I was looking for white specks which are indicative of dings and chips.

Aaron Rodgers Bowman Rookie Card

A lot of the cards had really banged up corners and edges.  It was very easy to rule out a lot of the cards based on corners and edges alone.  In the end, I had settled on two cards which I thought to be in sufficiently good enough condition to warrant a BGS 9.5 grade.  After carefully examining the scans for print spots, dirt, or other spots which might indicate surface card damage, and then re-examining the cards' corners and edges, I bought the better of the two.  I paid $11.55 for it.  

When I received that card from COMC in my next shipment, I was pleased to see that the card was indeed in great shape.  I knew I had a BGS 9.0 at the very least and a great shot at nabbing a BGS 9.5.

Remember, to get a BGS 9.5, you have to have at least three 9.5 subgrades, and any subgrades which aren't a 9.5 must be a 9.0.  (See this old blog post for general overview of the BGS grading formula.) 

A couple months later this card was sent off to Beckett for BGS grading.  When I got it back, I was happy to see that it got graded as a BGS 9.5 Gem Mint!  All four subgrades got a grade of 9.5. 

The value of this card, having been graded a BGS 9.5, is approximately $25 to $50 on eBay.  Considering that it cost me around $15 to have it graded this wouldn't be a huge profit, if any, if I were selling it to make money but I'm not.  This is a PC card and I'm happy to just put it in my collection.  It does bring me happiness and sense of pride though, knowing that I found it raw on COMC.  This just goes to show that with a little hard work, and a careful eye, that you can find BGS 9.5 cards on COMC.

Give it a shot!

Box Break: 2014 Topps U.S. Olympic and Paralympic Team and Hopefuls

I decided to break something completely different.  I purchased a hobby box of 2014 Topps U.S. Olympic and Paralympic Team and Hopefuls off of Blowout Cards.  It's only $40.00 for a box.  Inside, you get one autograph and two relic/commemorative relic cards.

Some of the bigger names to pull are: Lindsey Vonn, Gracie Gold, Lindsey Jacobellis, J.J. Celski, Lolo Jones, and Julia Mancuso.  There are 50 regular autograph cards in the set, plus 11 different Olympic Champion autographs.  When I bought this box I knew it was a long shot to get an autograph of somebody whom I really liked, but for $40.00 I figured: why not?

It turns out, I got super lucky and hit a Scott Hamilton autograph.  I'm really happy with this hit since he's a gold medalist and one of the most famous ice skaters in history.

My hobby box also had a commemorative pin card of Eddy Alvarez.  Pin cards are pretty rare, actually.  Their odds are 1:267 packs.

And my relic card was of Alex Shibutani.

I'm really happy with this box.  For only $40.00 I'm really tempted to try another one but I know I shouldn't.  You get a lot of base and a lot of parallel cards but I'm not sure what to do with all of them.  The base and parallel cards don't seem to be really popular on the secondary market.  So unless you get a relic, commemorative pin, or autograph of one of the popular athletes there isn't much value to these cards.  Nevertheless, they are nice looking cards.  Topps always does a pretty good job with their products.