Wednesday, April 23, 2014

The Inefficiency and Added Expense of Box Breaks

What got me back into the card collecting hobby after a long hiatus was this thing called "box breaks."  Box breaks are when multiple people come together to split a box of cards.  The cost is split among the participants, as are the cards.  Thus, the cost of buying into a break is a fraction of what a whole box would cost for one person, but you also stand a lesser chance of getting cards from that box too.

At first, box breaks sounded like a fantastic way for me to participate in collecting cards without breaking the bank.  I could buy into a few box breaks at a fraction of the price of a whole hobby box, and still have a chance at getting some cool cards.  It seemed like a win-win scenario.

Well, after participating in box breaks for over a year, I'm convinced it's not a win-win scenario. 

Part of the problem with box breaks is that they're just so damn addicting.  They're fun.  It's exciting.  You never know what team or what cards you'll get.  There's an element of chance, and randomness.  If you like gambling, then you'll probably like box breaks.  Once you start participating in box breaks it's extremely hard to stop.

Another problem with box breaks is that because they're so addicting I think it's a lot easier to spend more money on box breaks than had you just bought yourself a single hobby box and stopped there.  When you think about it, it's much easier to say to yourself, "I'm going to buy a couple of spots in a box break tonight and spend $20," than to say to yourself "I'm going to buy a whole hobby box for myself and spend $150."  But if you lack a lot of self-control, like I do, then you end up spending $20 here, $20 there, and soon enough you're spending $20 or more every night buying into box breaks.  Pretty soon you've spent way more money on box breaks than you would have had you just bought yourself one hobby box!

It took me a long time to learn this lesson, but before you buy into a box break you should ask yourself: how much am I willing to spend on this product?

If you're only willing to spend $40 on this product, then box breaks are the way to go. 
If you're willing to spend $200 on this product, then I think it's best that you just buy yourself as many hobby boxes as you can with that money.  You certainly shouldn't spend that $200 on box breaks for this product.  Why?

Within the cost to buy into each box break is the supplies and shipping cost for the breaker to ship the cards to you.  That cost is usually built into every single spot in a break.  This added cost effectively reduces your ability to purchase as many cards had you just bought a sealed hobby box and had it shipped to you.  Don't believe me?  Let's do the math.

Let's just say you're interested in buying a NFL product which is currently selling for $150 per hobby box.

If you go the box break route, the box breaker will likely be charging about $7 per spot for a random NFL team.  (Calculated by:  ($150 / 32) + $2.31 for shipping)  If you're willing to spend $200 on this product, then you could theoretically buy about 28.6 break spots.  (Calculated by: $200 / $7 per spot = 28.6 spots)  Let's round that up to 29 break spots.  In other words, you could technically buy 29 break spots such that you will own 29 out of the 32 NFL teams in the break. 

On the other hand, if you went the hobby box route, you could buy a hobby box for $150, pay about $10 to have it shipped to you, for a total of $160.  That's a whole hobby box, the box breaking equivalent of all 32 NFL teams (or spots) for only $160.  That's a price of only $5 per NFL team.  (Calculated by: $160 / 32 teams = $5 per team)  Paying $5 per NFL team sounds a lot better than paying $7 per NFL team.

Heck, with that leftover $40 out of the $200, you could then buy yourself five more $7 spots ($35) in a box break.  In total, you would have the equivalent of 37 box break spots for $195 in comparison to 29 box break spots had you just spent your full $200 on box breaks. 

Now does that make sense?

Time and time again, I see people spend hundreds of dollars buying into box breaks and spending more money on box breaks than they do the actual price of a hobby box.  This is inefficient

Basically, if you're willing to spend an amount of money on a product which is more than the cost of a hobby box, then you should just go ahead and buy yourself a hobby box of the product and avoid box breaks.  Alternatively, if the amount of money you're willing to spend on a product is less than the cost of a hobby box, then you are okay to buy into a box break as since that is the only way you would be able to afford a chance at getting those cards without buying an actual hobby box. 

Caveat: The above analysis is only applicable to random team box breaks or draft-your-team box breaks.  Pick-your-team box breaks are a different animal and if you're a team collector then buying into pick-your-team box breaks is infinitely times more efficient than buying multiple hobby boxes to try and get the cards for your team.

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