Finding BGS 9.5s on COMC.com

As a buyer, one of the best benefits of COMC.com are the high quality scans that they have of the cards on the site.  They have some of the highest quality scans you'll find for cards you're about to buy.  I don't know of any other website which takes so much time and effort to supply these scans.

Usually, when you buy cards on eBay you're forced to judge the condition of the card from crappy camera phone pictures or crap scans of the card through a super-scratched up toploader.  The condition of the card is often a guessing gaming, and always a significant gamble.  Sometimes the eBay sellers don't even provide a picture or scan of the back of the card so it's impossible to know the condition of the card's back!  It's basically like trying to view a card through a dirty and scratched up window, and only looking at the front.  That is hard.  I've been burned many times because of this, having received cards which had damage and flaws which were not visible in the crap pictures and scans.

COMC tries to avoid this dilemma by providing the highest quality scans possible so you can see every print spot, see every dinged corner, and see every chipped edge.  Honestly, the only thing which I do find hard to see on COMC's scans are any gouges or scratches on the surface of the card itself, but these would be hard to see anyways on most any camera pictures or scans.

Thanks to the high quality scans on COMC, it's very possible to find raw cards for sale which are likely BGS 9.5 cards once graded.

I was lucky enough to find one when viewing Aaron Rodgers rookie cards.  Below are the actual COMC scans which I saw when viewing the card.
 

Aaron Rodgers Bowman Rookie Card

By carefully looking at all the scans of these cards, I was able to pick out which ones were in the best shape.  I carefully examined the front of the card to see which ones had the best centering.  If the centering was perfect, or at least what I would deem to be an acceptable 9.0 centering subgrade, then I checked the corners and edges.  In this case I was looking for white specks which are indicative of dings and chips.

Aaron Rodgers Bowman Rookie Card

A lot of the cards had really banged up corners and edges.  It was very easy to rule out a lot of the cards based on corners and edges alone.  In the end, I had settled on two cards which I thought to be in sufficiently good enough condition to warrant a BGS 9.5 grade.  After carefully examining the scans for print spots, dirt, or other spots which might indicate surface card damage, and then re-examining the cards' corners and edges, I bought the better of the two.  I paid $11.55 for it.  

When I received that card from COMC in my next shipment, I was pleased to see that the card was indeed in great shape.  I knew I had a BGS 9.0 at the very least and a great shot at nabbing a BGS 9.5.

Remember, to get a BGS 9.5, you have to have at least three 9.5 subgrades, and any subgrades which aren't a 9.5 must be a 9.0.  (See this old blog post for general overview of the BGS grading formula.) 

A couple months later this card was sent off to Beckett for BGS grading.  When I got it back, I was happy to see that it got graded as a BGS 9.5 Gem Mint!  All four subgrades got a grade of 9.5. 

The value of this card, having been graded a BGS 9.5, is approximately $25 to $50 on eBay.  Considering that it cost me around $15 to have it graded this wouldn't be a huge profit, if any, if I were selling it to make money but I'm not.  This is a PC card and I'm happy to just put it in my collection.  It does bring me happiness and sense of pride though, knowing that I found it raw on COMC.  This just goes to show that with a little hard work, and a careful eye, that you can find BGS 9.5 cards on COMC.

Give it a shot!

Box Break: 2014 Topps U.S. Olympic and Paralympic Team and Hopefuls

I decided to break something completely different.  I purchased a hobby box of 2014 Topps U.S. Olympic and Paralympic Team and Hopefuls off of Blowout Cards.  It's only $40.00 for a box.  Inside, you get one autograph and two relic/commemorative relic cards.

Some of the bigger names to pull are: Lindsey Vonn, Gracie Gold, Lindsey Jacobellis, J.J. Celski, Lolo Jones, and Julia Mancuso.  There are 50 regular autograph cards in the set, plus 11 different Olympic Champion autographs.  When I bought this box I knew it was a long shot to get an autograph of somebody whom I really liked, but for $40.00 I figured: why not?

It turns out, I got super lucky and hit a Scott Hamilton autograph.  I'm really happy with this hit since he's a gold medalist and one of the most famous ice skaters in history.

My hobby box also had a commemorative pin card of Eddy Alvarez.  Pin cards are pretty rare, actually.  Their odds are 1:267 packs.

And my relic card was of Alex Shibutani.

I'm really happy with this box.  For only $40.00 I'm really tempted to try another one but I know I shouldn't.  You get a lot of base and a lot of parallel cards but I'm not sure what to do with all of them.  The base and parallel cards don't seem to be really popular on the secondary market.  So unless you get a relic, commemorative pin, or autograph of one of the popular athletes there isn't much value to these cards.  Nevertheless, they are nice looking cards.  Topps always does a pretty good job with their products.

My Topps Customer Service Experience & Redemption Mail Day Results

About two and a half weeks ago I called Topps and requested a replacement for an outstanding 2012 Topps Chrome Mark Barron Autograph. 

They said it would take about two weeks for my request to be fulfilled.  They weren't kidding, as last week my mail day arrived. 

My $25.00 Mark Barron autograph was officially replaced with a 2013 Bowman Football autograph of quarterback Mike Glennon.

I think I did pretty good!  I went from a defensive player with little potential for a value in crease, to a QB with potential for a value increase!  Granted, Mike Glennon's days might be numbered in Tampa Bay with the new coaching staff coming in and cleaning house, but he was one of the better performing rookie QBs from the 2013 class.  If he gets put in the right offense and in the right situation, I could see him being a serviceable QB.

I also got my blue wave pack.  I was really concerned that they might not send it or claim that they ran out but lucky for me I got one.  Unfortunately I didn't get any really top players.  I guess Morris Claiborne is the best card of the four that I got.  These are really beautiful cards in person when the sunlight hits them just right.

I had a pleasant experience dealing with Topps customers service, all the way from phone call to receipt of cards.  I can't complain.  I know that a lot of people have said that Topps has some of the worst customer service of all the card companies, but I experienced nothing of the sort.  I'm happy.

Eddie Lacy Mailday From Upper Deck!

About three months ago I hit a Eddie Lacy Greats of the Game redemption in a box break with JD Jammin Sports Cards. 

On Friday I got the signed card in the mail!

This is an awesome card.  I've only seen two other redemptions for this card on eBay.  Both sales averaged $30.  Considering that there are only three in total circulation at this time, I think it should be worth more.  It's going in my PC for now. 

Beckett Grading Services (BGS) Authentic vs. Altered

While perusing the Blowout Cards forums I saw one interesting post in which somebody asked:

What's the lowest grade you can get on a BGS graded card?

Some people will likely say "authentic," but I believe the best answer is "1". 

First, let's look at Beckett's grading scale which is visible for all to see on their website.  It clearly shows that the lowest score you can get on a graded card is a "1". 

Poor 1

Centering: 100/0 or offcut on front or back. Heavy diamond cutting is allowed. Corners: Heavily rounded or heavily notched with noticeable layering. Edges: Destructive chipping, notching or layering. Surface: Severe print spots. Heavy creases. Severe color or focus imperfections. Heavy border discoloration. Severe stains. No original gloss. Heavy scuffing or a severe tear.

I've never seen a modern card graded that low, but in theory such a score can be obtained. 

So what is an "authentic" grade?  An authentic grade is Beckett's certification that the card contained within the slab is an authentic card made by the manufacturer, and that it's not a fake card or has been altered in any way.

How does a person usually get an authentic grade?  Usually an authentic grade occurs when you send your card to Beckett for BGS grading, and you tell them not to put a grade on the card unless it meets a certain grade of your choice, and if it doesn't then it gets the authentic grade and a blue flip. 

For example, most people will send in cards to Beckett for BGS grading and only ask for a grade if the card grades a 8.5 or higher.  This is because a grade of 8.5 is still considered near-mint, and the slab will receive a silver metallic flip in the slab.  BGS grades of 8.0 or less receive the dreaded white paper flip in the slab.  So because people are afraid to get the dreaded paper flip in the slab -- which doesn't look as good as a silver or gold flip and because the low grade reduces the card's value -- people will choose to just get an authentic grade instead.  This way, when the person sells the card later on, at least it has Beckett's certification that the card is authentic, and the buyer is unaware (unless they examine the card closely within the slab) that the card has some sort of flaws which prevented it from getting a higher grade. 

This is a card with a BGS Authentic grade.

The above picture is an example of a BGS Authentic card.  Note the blue flip, and the words "AUTHENTIC" in the upper right corner.  This card has Beckett's certification that the card is an authentic card made by Panini, from the Epix brand, that the card is not counterfeit*, and the card has not been altered.

(*Side Note: the "authentic" grade only pertains to the card and not to the patch inside the card.  Some people try to increase the value of a card when selling it by taking out bland single colored patches, and putting in fake multi-colored patches.  BGS will still give cards the authentic grade even if the card contains a fake patch.) 

It is important to note that an "authentic" grade is different from an "authentic-altered" grade (sometimes just known as "altered.")  The authentic-altered grade means that the card is authentic, but that it has been altered in some way, usually in an attempt by someone to try and get a higher BGS grade. 

This is a card with a BGS Authentic-Altered grade.

The above card is an example of an authentic-altered grade.  Note that the authentic-altered grade still receives a blue flip, but the flip says "AUTHENTIC ALTERED."  This makes it clear that while the card is an authentic card from Topps, it has been altered in some way. 

In fact, when Beckett Grading Services thinks that the card has been altered in some way, they'll even send you a little note telling you what they think is wrong.

This card received an Authentic-Altered grade because of shaved edges.

This particular Joe Montana card received the authentic-altered grade because the grader believed that the front top, and front left edges were shaved. 

So which grade is lower, an authentic grade, an authentic-altered grade or a BGS 1 grade?

Technically, I believe that the BGS 1 grade is a lower grade.  The authentic and authentic-altered grades are not actually grades per se; they're just statements by BGS that the card is authentic or altered.  A card that receives an authentic grade, could still grade out to be a BGS 6.0 (I'm just picking an arbitrary number) but because the person who submitted the card for grading put a grade minimum of 8.5 or higher, that is why it got the authentic grade.  Similarly, a card which receives an authentic-altered grade could still be in much better shape despite its supposed alterations, than a BGS 1 graded card. 

So if you ask me, I believe that a BGS 1 is the lowest grade you can get when getting a card graded.

A "1 Poor" grade is the lowest you can get from BGS or BVG.

Some people claim that some really beat up vintage cards, which are so beat up that they can't even attain a BVG 1 grade, will get authentic grades.  After perusing eBay for some examples, this claim appears to be true.  The picture below is one example. 

This particular card is in such poor condition it cannot even attain a BVG 1 Poor grade.

So in some cases, yes, an "authentic" grade can be the absolute lowest grade you can get.  But keep in mind that what "authentic" really means is just that the card is legitimate, not counterfeit, and not altered.  Some cards with authentic grades will actually be in much better condition than cards which receive BGS 1 or BVG 1 grades (such as the Brett Favre card, above). 

In conclusion, BGS 1 or BVG 1 is the absolute lowest actual grade you can get when having your card graded by BVG or BGS; however, in some instances, an authentic grade can indicate that the card is in even worse condition than a BGS/BVG 1 although not all the time.  Basically, just use your own judgment and don't automatically presume that a card with an authentic grade is in really bad condition.  It could be in very good condition or better, but it just didn't meet the minimum grade requested by the person who submitted it for grading.

My Topps Customer Service Experience & Replacement Redemption Experience

Since I've been in the hobby, I've always heard from others about Topps' horrible customer service.  For the most part, it seems like there are complaints about long hold times on the telephone, getting the run around from whomever they talk to, and getting poorly valued replacements for redemptions.  I've never experienced Topps' customer service because I've never had occasion to... until now.

I've been waiting on a Mark Barron autograph from 2012 Topps Chrome Football.  It's been almost one year and eight months since the product released and he still hasn't signed his cards.  I doubt he will ever sign.  That being the case, I figured I might as well request a replacement autograph.  I also wanted to get my blue wave pack before Topps' ran out of them.  (All 2012 Topps Chrome redemption cards were to be fulfilled with a special pack of blue wave cards.)  In all honesty, I'm more concerned about getting a blue wave pack than getting a good replacement autograph.

So on Friday during my lunch break, I called Topps' Consumer Relation phone number at 1-800-489-9149 and found myself on hold, and second in line for service.  Within 30 seconds, another pre-recorded messaged played telling me I was first in line.  This was a pleasant surprise.  I had heard horror stories of people being on hold for -- literally -- an hour before speaking to someone.  Perhaps I just caught Topps on a good day when they weren't busy, or maybe they were making a very big effort to improve their customer service.

After another 30 seconds a woman picked up the phone.  She introduces herself as "Remy" and asked me my name.  I told her.  I guess she typed it into a computer and named off all four redemptions that I currently had outstanding.  (Impressive!)  Good thing I have a fairly unusual last name.  I can only imagine if your name is something very common like "Mike Johnson" or something, a dozen people might pop up in their database and then they'd have to figure out which one you are.

Next she asked what I was calling for.  I told her I wanted a replacement on my Mark Barron autograph redemption.  She said that was fine and asked me to hold while she looked up "how much the card is going for."

I thought it was a bit funny how they were trying to ascertain a price or value for this card, which never was produced (because Mark Barron never signed it).  At most, whatever value they came up with would only be theoretical.  I suppose you could rely on the sale history of the redemption card, but eBay didn't have any current sales of Mark Barron 2012 Topps Chrome autograph redemptions.

I was on hold for about four minutes when all of a sudden, I heard a click.  She had hung up on me.  It was likely an accident, but still annoying.

So I called back.  This time, I was immediately connected to a different representative.  She was a woman, and took about three minutes taking down my information and request again.  She then put me on hold.  After another minute on hold a second woman came onto the line and said that she was going to transfer me to another representative "to complete this matter."  Could the last person I talked to not complete this matter herself?  Not having much of a choice, I said okay.  Next, a third woman answers the phone, and immediately puts me on hold.  Why?  I don't know.

So at this point, between the two phone calls, I had spoken to four different ladies.  The first one hung up on me, and the next three just kept putting me on hold and transferring me to other people.

Finally, the fourth person (for this phone call) picks up the line, and asks me what I want.  I tell her again, and give her my name.  She tells me she's Remy, the gal I talked to on the first phone call, and that she accidentally hung up on me.  She apologized and noted that she's sitting at someone else's desk right now and this person's phone (or phone line) is messed up and it sometimes disconnects when it shouldn't.  Okay, no biggie.  She then tells me she's going to put me on hold so she can go look up the card's Beckett Value.  Did she not get around to doing that the first time I called?

After being on hold for another few minutes, Remy came back on the line.  She explained that the Mark Barron autograph had a Becket Value of $25.00 and that I would be getting a card of equal or greater value within one or two weeks.  I said that was fine, but I wanted to make sure that I got a blue wave pack too.  She said she'd put a note in the order, and that the orders are processed by a different department so she personally couldn't do anything about it.  Fair enough.  I thanked her for her help and that was it.

Overall I wouldn't say that my experience with Topps' customer service was bad at all.  Sure there was a dropped call, a little bit too much transferring between representatives, but I wasn't on hold for a long time and the representatives were fairly pleasant.

Now, the only question remaining is whether the card I receive from Topps will have an equal or greater value of $25.00, and whether I get my blue wave pack...

2014 Upper Deck Football Blaster Box Break #1

I picked up a blaster box of 2014 Upper Deck Football.  I haven't opened a blaster before.  I have opened up a hobby box of this product and liked it a lot so I figured I'd give the blasters a try too.

The blasters are a little expensive.  They're $19.99 plus tax, for 35 cards and a bonus pack of Johnny Manziel career highlight cards (5 cards).  That's basically $20 for 40 cards, or about 50 cents per card.  That is pretty steep for a low end retail product.  But on the plus side, the blaster box does guarantee you over 35 rookie cards in the blaster.  In other words, you're not going to get a ton of worthless veteran base cards. 

The only notable cards I got were a Blake Bortles rookie card, and a Jordan Lynch rookie card.  I don't have either of those yet, so I was glad to get those rookie QBs. 

I was pretty lucky and also got one SSP card and one SP card.  The SSP card was a Aaron Colvin rookie card, and the SP card was a Martavis Bryant rookie card.  I actually got a SP Martavis Bryant rookie card in my hobby box, so now I have two.

The Johnny Manziel cards were unremarkable.  I don't think they're really true rookie cards so I'll probably sell them. 

Overall, not a bad break.  I got lots of rookie cards, one top QB draft draft pick, a SP rookie card, and a SSP rookie card.  There are worse ways to spend $20.  I can live with the outcome of this blaster. 

2014 Upper Deck Football Box Break #1

I bought myself a hobby box of 2014 Upper Deck Football.  I bought this box off of Blowout Cards for about $90.  The price is a little on the high side for what I think it should be, but I wanted to bust some 2014 product.  Anyways, here's the damage.    

Notable Base Rookie Cards:

Johnny Manziel

Sammy Watkins SP (not pictured)

Jimmy Garoppolo

Tom Savage

Martavis Bryant SP

1994 UD Tribute Star Rookie Inserts:

Marion Grice 

Stephen Morris

Taylor Lewan

College Tribute:

Penn State's White Out

UD Authentics:

Blake Bortles

Bruce Ellington

Jeff Mathews (not pictured)

Upper Deck Letterman:

James White (New England Patriots, 4th Round, 130th Overall)

Stephen Morris (Undrafted)

Rookie Autographs:

Devin Street (Dallas Cowboys, 5th Round, 146th overall)

Post-Break Thoughts: 

Overall, I think this was an "okay" box.  My hits weren't great.  Stephen Morris went undrafted in the 2014 NFL Draft.  It always sucks when one of your hits is an undrafted free agent.  Devin Street isn't a big name, nor is James White.  I wasn't expecting, but I sure was hoping to get at least one big name hit in the box. 

On the other hand, the inserts weren't bad at all.  I did well on the UD Authentics, getting three of them in this box.  I think most boxes only have one or two.  Even better, two out of three were big name players.  Obviously, Bortles is a good guy to get, and Bruce Ellington is supposedly to be a baller. 

The College Tribute cards are cool, and I'm lucky to get one in my box, but I'll probably sell the White Out. 

Would I buy another box of this?  Yes, but only at the right price.  I definitely wouldn't pay more than $100 for a box of this.  A fairer price point is probably around $80.00.

BGS Grading Tip: Ink on Edge Will Result in Low Grade

I was watching a BGS mailday video by UltimateBoxBreaks.com and came across something really interesting. 

One of the cards that was sent in was a Denarius Moore 2011 Panini Prime Signatures 1/1.  Unfortunately, that card came back with a final BGS grade of 5.0!

What in the world caused it to get such a low grade?!   Well, BGS was nice enough to include a note with the card stating why its final grade was so low.  It was because there was ink on one of the edges.

Here's a screen-grab one the ink on the edge.  I've circled it in red.  It's actually a very small ink mark.  It looks like the player (or maybe the owner of the card) accidentally nicked one of the edges of the card with either a sharpie or a ball point pen.  Either way, the results is a really really, and I mean really, bad edges subgrade.

I even looked up the BGS grade online.  Here it is.

The edges got a 4!  This just goes to show how careful you have to be handling your cards, and inspecting them for flaws before you send them in.

(And as a side note, it is worth noting that the card's final grade was a whole 1.0 higher than its lowest subgrade, which is a rare exception to the general rule that you can only get 0.5 higher than your lowest subgrade.  Check out this Beckett BGS Grading blog post for more information on that.)

Now, I've already blogged about the ink stain problems on 2013 Topps Five Star Football cards.  Imagine if you sent one of those cards in for BGS grading.  You'd probably get just as low of a grade, or perhaps even a lower grade.  I've seen some 2013 Topps Five Star Football cards with big time ink stains on the corner edges -- much bigger than that little ink mark on this Denarius Moore card.  It would be such a shame if you hit a really nice card in your box of 2013 Topps Five Star Football only to find out that it had ink stains on one of the corners.  Since you would only expect that card to get a final BGS grad of about 5.0, then its value would be incredibly diminished.

UPDATE:  Since I wrote this blog post, UltimateBoxBreaks.com did another Beckett BGS Grading mailday video, and two 2013 Topps Five Star Football cards came back upgraded because of ink stained corners.   Apparently the ink stained corners were so bad that BGS didn't want to grade them.  I'm assuming that the grades the cards would have received would be even less than a 4.0. 

2014 NFLPA Rookie Premiere & 2014 Topps Inception Football Preview

The 2014 NFL Players Association Rookie Premiere is currently underway in Los Angeles.  Fortunately for us card collectors, Topps has been posting some good pictures of the upcoming releases on their Twitter feed.  Below are some of the pictures.

2014 Topps Inception Football Inscription Card

I actually grabbed the above picture from a video.  It shows what the new 2014 Topps Inception Football inscription cards will look like.  I think they look awesome.  I like the ornate gold foil inlay which frames the team logo, and which is underneath the player name.  It's smart of Topps to only put gloss on the actual player image rather than over the entire card.  By not putting gloss on the area where the player will sign this helps ensure that the autograph doesn't smear or scratch off so easily. 

This one is actually a preview of 2014 Bowman Football.  The cards are a little hard to see but from you can see they do look very nice. 

Brandin Cooks is showing off a old school mini.  Notice all the jerseys stacked up behind him?  That is why I don't usually buy or pay a premium for rookie year patch autograph cards.  Those jerseys will hardly be touched by the players.  At the most, each will be worn for minutes or mere moments just so the card companies can claim them as being "event used" or "player worn." 

 Another Inception preview, with tons of jerseys stacked in the background.

Overall, the cards Inception cards look pretty nice.  Obviously, the biggest draw for Inception is that it will be the first high-end release for the 2014 NFL rookie class and it will have tons of on-card autographs.  Unfortunately, some of the players are depicted on their cards as wearing number "00", which is because they haven't been assigned a number yet by their team. 

2014 Topps Valor Football Preview

Topps Valor will be returning in 2014 after taking a year off after its debut year in 2012.  I was probably only one of three people on Earth who liked 2012 Topps Valor Football.  I thought the theme was cool, the cards looked beautiful, and I loved all the on-card rookie autographs.  Oh, and the tins were awesome also. 

Unfortunately, while the cards were great in theory and looked awesome, the execution was a little sub-par.  First of all, the checklist was lopsided and a little weak.  Most notably, Russell Wilson autographs were missing from the product.  Many NFL teams were not even represented on the checklist at all.  The price for a hobby box was way too expensive too.  Even presently, at a very reduced price of about $130 a box (via Blowoutcards.com), I think it's still too expensive to break for only two rookie autographs, one veteran autograph, and one patch card.  That's about $43 per autograph, or about $32.50 per hit.  Finally, way too many of the cards suffered from really really REALLY bad corner and edge damage. 

I was really hoping to see Valor return in 2013, but it didn't.  Perhaps Topps was taking some time to re-think what they wanted to do with this product before bringing it back in 2014. 

Well, it's 2014, and Valor is back.  How does it look?  The first previews have me concerned.

The 2014 mockups look way different than the 2012 cards.  Change isn't always a bad thing, so long as it's for the better, but I'm not so sure this is for the better. 

The first thing which jumps out at you is the background image.  Now instead of a fairly blank background the 2014 background will be the team logo on a checkered design.  This change wouldn't be so horrible if it stayed within the whole gladiator theme, but I don't think it does.  The 2012 cards had a very subtle sky and coliseum background image on the cards which -- in my opinion -- did induce mental images of ancient gladiators, swords, and awesome movie scenes from the movie Gladiator.  This logo and checked background doesn't make me think about gladiators at all.

The second thing which worries me are the sticker autographs.  Maybe Topps will get the players to sign on-card and the stickers in the previews are there just as a precaution, but one of the great things about the 2012 Valor set were the on-card rookie autographs.  Topps needs to continue the on-card trend. 

The patch autographs look awesome.  You can clearly see the whole gladiator shield design element working well with this cards. 

The gladiator theme continues very nicely on the patch cards.  While the patches do look very reminiscent of Supreme patch cards, the design element is nice and ancient Roman feeling. 

Perhaps the biggest change to Valor will be the pack-out format.  Instead of one tin of only six cards, it's now going to be a 20 pack box, four hits per box (autograph, autograph relic, jumbo relic, and patch card), and the base set will now be a whopping 200 cards!  This change seems to signal Topps' intent to make this product more of a collectible middle-end product rather than a high-end product.  I'm not against this move but I hope Topps continues to focus on the quality of the product.  The 2014 base checklist should include all 32 NFL teams.  It should have hits for every NFL team.  All the top 2014 rookies should have autographs in the product.  The price point should be cheaper.  And the cards need to be packed in better manner such that they don't all suffer edge and corner damage. 

The Valor product line has huge potential, in my opinion.  Topps needs to address the problems which kept so many people from buying it in 2012.  If they're able to do that, then I think they'll have another successful product to add to their already impressive list of successful products. 

Sports Card Thickness

If you haven't checked out BCW's blog, you should.  They have some great tips on their blog and plenty of information about their products.  One great blog post is the one on card thickness.  If you can always remember the below tips, you'll never have a problem with knowing what thickness magnetic or toploader that you need for your cards!

• A regular sports card is about 20 points thick.
• A regular Topps base card is about 18 points thick.
• A card sleeve is about 4 points thick.

Basically, all you need to remember is that your typical sports card is 18 to 20 points thick!  If you can remember that, and you have some extra base cards lying around, you can always figure out the exact thickness of a card by stacking those base cards next to it.  This is a great way to figure out what size and thickness magnetics and toploaders you need. 

BGS Beckett Grading Tip: Centering

Of the four Becket Grading Service (BGS) subgrades -- centering, corners, edges, and surface -- the card's centering should be the easiest for you to evaluate on your own.  The only tool you're really need is a ruler.

It's important to keep in mind what makes for a good centering subgrade.  Beckett's own website provides guidance on this issue:

Pristine 10 centering must be: "50/50 all around on the front and 60/40 or better on the back."  

Gem Mint 9.5 centering must be: "50/50 one way, 55/45 the other way on the front, and 60/40 or better on the back."

Mint 9.0 centering must be: "55/45 both ways on the front, and 60/40 or better on the back."  

Understanding what the above language means is critical to making sure you're only submitting cards for grading which should receive a 10 or 9.5 on its centering subgrade.

The first important note to take away from the above language is that the card's front centering is way more important to obtaining a good centering subgrade than the card's back centering.  Even with 60/40 centering on the back of the card you still can get a 9.0, 9.5 or 10 subgrade on the centering subgrade depending on the card's front centering.

The second important note to take away from the above language is that to get a centering subgrade of 10, the card's front centering must be 50/50 all around on the front.  This means that the card should not be off-centered left to right or top to bottom.

The third important note to take away from the above language is that if the front of your card is off-centered both left to right and top to bottom, then you can only get as high as a 9.0 subgrade on centering (although you certainly might get lower).  A subgrade of 9.0 on centering allows for the card's front centering to be off both ways, but only by a small margin of 55/45 both ways.  However, to get a subgrade of 9.5 on centering then the card's front centering must be 50/50 one way and only 55/45 the other way.

In conclusion, if your card is off-centered on the front in both directions, meaning top/bottom and left/right, then there is no way you're going to get a 9.5 subgrade on centering.  Most likely you're going to get a subgrade of 9.0 or less on centering.  This can hurt your overall grade significantly as since the general BGS rule is that your final grade cannot be more than 0.5 higher than your lowest subgrade.  (I've covered the basics of the BGS grading formula in this previous post.)

Centering is one of the easiest subgrades for you to control and measure when you're buying cards either on eBay or COMC.  If I'm buying a card on eBay or COMC which I would like to submit for BGS grading, then I am very careful to evaluate its centering in the pictures or scans.  Since COMC uses high quality scans on their website, this makes measuring centering very easy.  I'll often enlarge the scans and use a ruler to measure the centering on the card to make sure it will garner a high subgrade.

Keep the above tips in mind when choosing cards to submit for BGS grading.  There should be no excuses for not getting a 9.5 or higher on your cards' centering subgrade if you know the BGS grading criteria and are careful to evaluate your card's centering.

2013 Topps Five Star Football is Awesome But Beware of Ink Stains on Corners

Having watched a ton of 2013 Topps Five Star Football box and case breaks on YouTube, I finally gave into buying some singles.  I had heard that some boxes contained cards which had black ink stains on the corners.

Mindful that the cards might have ink stains, I took to eBay and bought some singles.  I was careful the entire time to check the pictures and scans to see if the corners were stained.  More often than not, you just couldn't tell from the pictures.  Furthermore, as since most eBay sellers are looking to sell their cards for the highest price possible, they will not disclose any defects to the card anyways.  Basically, you're basically just buying blind. 

My first single came in the mail a few days ago.  It was a gorgeous card of a player that I PC, but one of its corners clearly had a black stain to it.

Black ink stains on the corner edge.

I notified the seller.  He has offered a refund, and claims that they didn't see the black ink stain on the corner.  Who knows whether they really did or not.  I suppose if they are a volume seller who doesn't have a lot of time to take an additional five seconds to look at the card's four corners then I guess it's plausible.  More than likely the seller probably knew about the stain, and didn't want to disclose it hoping for whomever bought the card to not see it or not return it.

Be aware when you're buying Five Star singles that the cards may have ink stains on the corner.  It's unfortunate that Topps is having this problem with this product, because it is ruining otherwise beautiful cards. 

eBay Best Practices: Communicate with the Seller Regarding Any Problems

You've just received an item in the mail from a seller on eBay.  You open up the package only to discover that something is wrong with the item.  Perhaps it was not as described or it was partially damaged in transit due to poor packing protection.  What do you do?

It's always a good idea to politely contact the seller and notify them of the problem.  Most sells will respond and offer you the ability to return the item for a refund.  Sometimes if they're feeling super generous they may refund you part of the sale price or let you keep the item.  Other times, they may even reimburse you for return shipping costs although those are normally borne by the buyer.

In any event, politely communicating with the seller is never a bad idea.  If they don't respond to messages to help resolve your problem then you should feel no remorse for leaving them neutral or negative feedback.  (As of the date of this blog post, eBay sellers can only leave buyers positive feedback so you should have no fear of receiving a retaliatory negative feedback.)  Your last resort to an unresponsive or uncooperative seller is to open up an eBay claim.  As long as you have messages and pictures to prove your story, you should be able to convince eBay to rule any disputes in your favor so you can get a refund. 

Beckett Grading Service (BGS) is NOT an Average

One misconception a lot of people have with Beckett Grading Services (BGS Grading) is that the "formula" is an average.

Here's a tip:  BGS does not use an average. 

I've covered the basics of the BGS forumla in this previous blog post. 

BGS gives more weight to your lowest sub-grade(s) than your higher sub-grades.  For example, if a card has sub-grades of Centering 9.5, Corners 8.5, Edges 8.5, and Surface 9.5, the final grade will be NM/Mint+ 8.5 and not a final grade of 9.0 which is the average.

Centering 9.5
Corners 8.5
Edges 8.5
Surface 9.5

Average = 9.0
BGS Final Grade: 8.5

Remember, if two of your subgrades share the lowest subgrade score, then your final grade will be equal to that lowest subgrade.  

How to Verify the Authenticity of PSA Graded Cards and Flips

One great way to determine if a PSA graded card is authentic and not counterfeit or fake is to use the app "RedLaser."

The app is free, and is available for the iPhone.  Use it to scan the PSA barcode on the "flip" (the paper tab at the top of the slab which has all of the card's information printed on it).

RedLaser will read the barcode, and show a number.  That number should match the serial number shown on the flip.  If it doesn't, that means it's a fake!

Keep in mind that even if the barcode matches the serial number, it could still mean the card is fake or the slab has been tampered with in some way.  But this is one great and easy way to determine if a slabbed card is counterfeit or not.

Try it yourself!  Below is a PSA 10 Michael Jordan rookie card.

If you use RedLaser to scan the barcode, it should read the barcode as "90576975" instead of "90168589" which is printed on the flip.

Clearly, this flip is fake and the card inside the PSA slab is likely counterfeit too.

NFL Draft Is Less Than A Week Away!

The NFL Draft is less than a week away and I'm stoked!

If you PC players from a certain college, now is a great time to buy their cards.  Once the draft happens all the team collectors and the player collectors will be scooping up the rest of what's out there.  I've been taking advantage of the pre-Draft market and buying my favorite college players for fairly cheap.  I'm interested to see what teams draft my guys and in what round they're drafted.

One guy I've been tracking is Oregon State wide receiver Brandin Cooks.  I think he has potential to be a great wide receiver in the NFL despite his smaller size.  I've been charting his 2014 Leaf Metal base prismatic autograph rookie cards for some time now.  It's been interesting to see how the market prices vary over time.  Below is the graph.

This graph follows the eBay sale prices (sale price plus shipping cost) for all of his base prismatic autograph rookie cards.  Thus, I was not tracking any of the shorter printed parallels.  The sale price is on the Y-axis, and the date of sale is on the X-axis.

Each blue dot represents a sale on a given day.  The red dots represent a moving average of the last ten sales.

This graph reveals a few interesting trends.

First, prices start out fairly high when the product first released in late February 2014.  Most of the cards were selling for anywhere between $10 to $15.  Over the next two weeks the average price dropped considerably, at which point cards were selling for anywhere between $6 to $10.

This trend is not unexpected.  Prices for singles are always high immediately after a product's release as the hard core collectors with deep pockets go on eBay buying binges to nab all the cards they want.  Once that event ends, and all the hard core collectors are satisfied, prices tend to drop to more reasonable levels.

But then things start to get interesting about three weeks after the product's release (March 22, 2014 on the graph) -- prices start going back up slowly. This is shown by the slow rise of the red dots. 

Why is this?

This is mostly due to the supply of the cards.  Two weeks after the product's release, the market was flooded with cards.  Just look at all the blue dots around the March 15, 2014 date.  The laws of supply and demand state that if the supply curve increases, but the demand curve stays the same, the equilibrium price will drop.  This is what happened.  Tons of people were breaking Leaf Metal around that time and had started to put the cards up on eBay for sale.  With tons of cards for sale, bidders had plenty of options (cards) to bid on.

But starting three weeks after the product's release, and more noticeably after four weeks following the product's release, the supply of the cards available had gone down.  Notice how few blue dots there are in April and early May.  Less people were opening the product, and less cards were available for purchase on eBay.  The laws of supply and demand state that if the supply curve decreases, but the demand curve stays the same, the equilibrium price will go up.  This is exactly what happened.  With fewer and fewer cards available to buy on eBay, bidders were getting into bidding wars.  Other sells would put cards at above-average Buy-It-Now prices and would actually get buyers making that purchase just because there weren't any other options available. 

It will be extremely interesting to see how the prices will react once Brandin Cooks is drafted.  I imagine that if he is drafted high in the first round, all the people who have been hoarding his autographs will put them up on eBay to sell them to all the team collectors who are PCing their team's draft picks.  This would represent both an increase in the supply curve and an increase in the demand curve.  This could result in prices going up, or staying about the same since the increase demand will be offset by the increased supply. 

On the other hand, if Brandin Cooks is drafted lower than expected, while we still might see a flood of cards return to the market, the demand may remain stagnant.  If this happens, prices might go back down.

One final takeaway from this chart is that if you're looking to flip, timing is always key.  Buy cards a couple weeks after the product's release once prices have gone down to reasonable levels.  Then, sell them later on once the supply has dried up, or right after the draft when demand is likely to spike again.

I'll be updating this chart for at least a month following the draft to see what happens to his prices.  I may even continue updating this chart throughout the entire 2014 season to see how his prices react to his performance.  This should be interesting to follow. 

Leaf Best of Football Unopened Is Riskier Than Risky

When it comes to buying packs (and/or boxes) of sports cards, every sports card collector knows they are taking a risk.  That risk is the possibility you'll get nothing of extraordinary value in that pack -- like all base cards.  Of course, on the other hand, there is always the possibility you might get something totally awesome like a $200 hit.  More often than not, you'll end up getting less money back than what you paid.  That's just the name of the game.  We all know of that risk, and accept it when we buy products.

But one such product takes this risk way above and beyond what I think is reasonable.  That product is 2014 Leaf Best of Football Unopened Edition. (Currently priced at $155 on Blowout Cards as of April 25, 2014.)

In this product you get one cut autograph which is slabbed by BGS, and one sealed football box.  At first thought this product might not seem so bad or so different from buying a hobby box of football cards yourself as you might do every few weeks or every month, but I think it is.

When you choose to buy yourself a hobby box of football cards, you tend to buy what you want and what you like.  Why buy a hobby box of a product whose design you hate?  By choosing a hobby box of a product you like you are ensuring that you're getting a product you like.  This choice is a benefit to you as a consumer.

If you're like me, when you buy a hobby box of football cards, you may also tend to avoid products which have expired redemptions.  Not all companies honor expired redemptions.  Upper Deck and Topps will not honor expired redemptions, but Panini will.  If you're concerned that you might get a hit which is expired and will not be honored by the company that produced that product, then you should avoid that product.  The choice to choose which product to buy in order to avoid expired redemptions is another benefit to you as a consumer.

When you buy a box of 2014 Leaf Best of Football Unopened Edition, you give up both of those benefits.  You don't get to choose which football box you're going to get, thereby running the risk of getting a product you hate.  You also run the risk of getting a football product which has expired redemptions which will not be honored.

In my opinion, losing those two benefits is enough to make me not buy 2014 Leaf Best of Football Unopened Edition.

Now, I know some people might be thinking that there are some benefits to buying this product.  I suppose there are.  Like any other packaged sports card product, you have the chance at hitting some great cards and getting back more money that you paid for the box.  For example, maybe your cut autograph will be Dan Marino.  If it is, that is awesome!  And maybe the football box you get is Topps Five Star Football, Upper Deck Exquisite or Panini National Treasures -- all very expensive hobby boxes which cost more than the $155 you spent to buy the Leaf Best of Football Unopened Edition Box.  More than likely though, you're not going to get a National Treasures box.

One of the box breakers I use frequently (Breakerz Anonymous) did a very nice analysis on the "recover rate" -- the amount of money you'd expect to recoup when you buy a box of 2014 Leaf Best of Football Unopened Edition.  He watched all the available case breaks for this product on YouTube, crunched some numbers, and estimated that the "recovery rate" is 62.1%.

In other words, if you spend $989.95 buying a case of 2014 Leaf Best of Football Unopened Edition, you will on average lose $375.34 for opening it just to see what football boxes and cut autographs are inside.  That figure does not take into account what may be inside the actual football boxes themselves.  Once you open up those football boxes you are likely going to suffer another loss of money as the value of the cards in that box, on average, will not cost more than the value of the sealed box.

Imagine the level of frustration you would have if you paid $155 for a box of 2014 Leaf Best of Football Unopened Edition, you open it up, your cut autograph only worth about $20, and your unopened football box instead was 2013 Topps Magic (Blowout price of $51).  Talk about a brutal punch to the gut.  If you open up that box of 2013 Topps Magic, you're probably only going to get $20 worth of cards in return on average.  So at the end of the day, after spending $155 for a box of 2014 Leaf Best of Football Unopened Edition you could be left with a $20 cut autograph and $20 worth of cards.  That's a "recovery rate" of 25.8%.

One guy on the Blowout Cards forums said he paid close to $200 for a box of this product, got a Joe Schmidt cut autograph ($5 to $10), and his sealed football box was 2010 Topps Chrome Football ($65 on Blowout).  He opened up the Chrome box and didn't even get an autograph!  Things might not have been so bad had he pulled a Tim Tebow, Sam Bradford, or Dez Bryant base rookie card but he didn't even get any of those guys either!  In total, he probably had around $15 worth of cards in the end.  That's a "recovery rate" of 7.5%. 

That last anecdote was a brutal one, and probably one of the worst ones you'd see.  Could anything be worse than that?  Yeah.  How about getting a product full of expired redemptions.  I couldn't find the tweet or post, but I remember seeing one guy complaining about getting an old Upper Deck product, ended up getting a redemption for a high valued card, but that redemption was expired!  (Upper Deck does not honor expired redemptions.)  So this guy basically had a "recovery rate" of 0% from the football box.  I can't remember who exactly he got for his cut autograph but it wasn't anyone super valuable.

Frankly, I don't know why people buy this product.  I'm guessing people just don't think enough about all the product's risks.  If they did, I think they would realize that the risk is just way too much to endure.  The possibility of getting a product you hate makes it risky.  The possibility of getting a low-value sealed football box makes it riskier.  And then the possibility getting a product with expired redemptions makes it insanely risky. 

I don't blame Leaf for making this product, but as a consumer I'd stay far away from this product and would never buy a box of it for myself. 

The Pitfalls to Participating in High-End Case Breaks By the Team

Participating in case breaks is always a risk.  Participating in high-end case breaks can sometimes be extremely risky.  Today, that risk caught up to me big time. 

I had bought into a case break of 2013 Topps Five Star Football on the Blowout Cards forums.  The format was random teams.  I ended up with the Cleveland Browns. 

The checklist for the product wasn't out at the time so nobody really knew for sure whether they had a good team or not.  Of course, some teams are pretty much guaranteed to be good no matter what (e.g. Saints, Packers, Broncos).  Other teams you know will be good based on the amount of big name rookies on that team which attended the 2013 Rookie Photo Shoot (Rookie Premiere).  And then there are those teams which are lacking any big name rookies, and who typically aren't your historically great team -- like the Cleveland Browns. 

It was my hopes that maybe there would be some awesome veteran signatures for the Browns in 2013 Five Star but my hopes were crushed when the checklist came out.  Not a single Browns player in base checklist, nor any Browns players having single hits.  The only Browns player in the checklist is Brandon Weeden who appears on a octo-patch book with seven other players.  Even if that card was pulled in the case break, I'd still only have a 1/8 chance of getting that card. 

So, when all is said and done, I bought into a case break, got a shit team, and have about a 0.00001% chance of getting anything from the break -- literally. 

It was only around $40 to buy into the break so it wasn't a huge waste of money.  I knew the risk, but damn.  I sure am kicking myself for buying into this break despite knowing the risks. 

2013 Topps Five Star Football Is Live!

2013 Topps Five Star Football cards are going live!  A handful have already hit eBay at the moment.  The cards are looking amazing!  Just take a look at some of these beauties!

DROOL.

JAW DROPPING.

AMAZING ON-CARD SIGNATURE!

Wow.  These cards are like the stuff of dreams.  So much on-card action going on.  No stickers!  Beautiful design, imagery, and layout.  I think this stuff blows National Treasures out of the water in terms of looks.  It's not even close. 

I will have to buy myself a few of these beauties. 

Box Breaker Review: JD Jammin Sports Cards

I've been dying -- absolutely dying -- to buy some 2013 Fleer Retro Football.  I love the base card design.  I like a lot of the retro inserts (although not all of them).  I like Upper Deck products.  But unfortunately, it didn't seem like a lot of box breakers were breaking Fleer Retro.  The product isn't for everyone.  Not everyone likes the retro designs.  Admittedly, the checklist is filled with a lot of no-name players.  It always sucks when one of your autographs is a player who wasn't drafted at all.  But despite that risk, I just had to buy into a break for some Fleer Retro.

To help me find someone who was breaking Fleer Retro I turned to Google.  On the first page was a box break listing by a breaker who I've never heard of: JD Jammin Sports Cards. 

Was this person legit?  I did my due diligence.  I watched a few of JD's breaks on Ustream, and recap videos on YouTube.  He seemed legit.  He definitely had a very nice looking website, at least.

I decided to give him a shot and bought three spots in a 3-box box break. 

Freakin' love the retro base card design!

When it came time to break, I got the Green Bay Packers, Atlanta Falcons, and the Cleveland Browns.  The Falcons and the Browns are pretty bad teams to have in 2013 products, but the Packers are perhaps the best team to have!  I was hoping to see some Eddie Lacy pop out.

Show me that Eddie "Circle Button" Lacy #BOOM!

And I did!  Got myself a few nice Eddie Lacy base rookie cards and a Eddie Lacy Greats of the Game autograph redemption!  This is my first Eddie Lacy autograph and it's staying in the PC.

Lovin' these retro inserts!

And I also got a trio of nice Fleer Showcase inserts of Eddie Lacy, Jonathan Franklin, and Chris Harper (not pictured).

When my cards arrived in the mail I was very impressed with the shipping.  JD had put all the base cards in card sleeves, put my better inserts in toploaders, and put my Eddie Lacy base rookie cards in toploaders too.  The rest of the sleeved base cards were then stuck between the toploaded cards and sealed shut in a team bag.  The sealed team bag was then placed in a padded envelope.  The care in shipping and protecting these cards was excellent and was like night and day in comparison to the shipping by another breaker I've used before (that blog post can be found here).

Nice background.  Nice high-quality video.
All packs stay on the screen.

Overall I was very impressed with JD Jammin Sports Cards.  The box break video quality is high.  All the breaks are recorded -- as they should be -- and available for later viewing on Ustream.  Shorter recap videos are on YouTube if you just want to see the hits and other notable cards.  The packs of cards always stayed on the screen so there was no possibility of switching out packs or other foul play.  I'm not sure if a backup camera was used, but so long as the internet doesn't go out then it shouldn't be an issue (of course, when the internet goes out that's why you need a backup camera to maintain the utmost breaker integrity).

JD Jammin Sports cards has one of the nicest box break websites that I've ever seen.  He keeps his followers and customers informed of his upcoming breaks via blog posts and tweets.  You can earn "Jamminpoints" every time you buy into a break which you can then use to buy more stuff (supplies, cards, buy into more breaks) on his website.  He's definitely trying to build brand loyalty in a market place which is saturated with other breakers and where customer loyalty runs deep.  A new feature on the website are "pack breaks" where you can choose which pack of cards you want to buy from a hobby box.  This idea isn't novel but the execution he is utilizing is.  Each pack will be numbered with a sharpie before the break starting from the top pack on the left side and ending on the bottom pack on the right side.  When you buy your packs you choose which pack you want to buy based on the pack number. 

Would I break with JD Jammin Sports Cards again? 

Definitely.  He's one of the most professional box breakers I've every used. 

Box Breakers Should Always Ship Hits in Toploaders

In the card community there is this rule that cards are never shipped without being put into a toploader.  It's sort of like the unwritten rule of shipping cards -- but yet this rule gets written about a lot because (amazingly enough) it gets broken a lot.

The first time this happened to me was when I bought a Doug Martin autograph card off of eBay.  The dimwit seller put the card in a padded envelope and put it in the mail.  That's it.  No toploader.  Not even a card sleeve.  When I received the envelope and opened it up, the card had a huge crease right down the middle.  I was appalled.  I couldn't believe somebody would be this stupid.  Did this person really not think that the card wouldn't get bent in transit?  Or maybe this person ran out of toploaders?  What sports card collector doesn't have a few random toploaders lying around?  

Well, it's happened to me again.  This time the person who sent me the cards not in a toploader was a box breaker.  This person should know better.  This breaker has been around for over a year.  In fact, I've broke with them once before.  Last time I broke with them I didn't get any hits and when I received the base cards in the mail they weren't in any sort of special protection.  He had just put them in a team bag inside of a padded envelope.  They were just base cards so I really wasn't that upset or concerned, but I did make a mental note to myself of this fact.  I have participated in box breaks where the box breaker will at least put the base cards between two toploaders inside of a team bag to provide extra protection.  So the lack of effort on the box breaker's part was noticed.

It's generally okay to ship low value base cards in just a team bag
(although it wouldn't hurt to sandwich them between toploaders),
but hits should always be shipped in a toploader.

This time I had gotten two hits in a box break.  In the live webcast he even stated (to all the people watching) that the hits would be sent in toploaders.  Well, he lied.

The two hits arrived in a padded envelope, but were otherwise sitting naked, in a team bag and that's it.  No card sleeves.  No toploader.

Lucky for me, and by some grace of God, the cards actually hadn't been damaged in transit but this is beside the point.  The cards should have been in toploaders.  Why they weren't is beyond me.  I find it inexcusable how a box breaker could ship the hits naked, and not in any sort of protection like a toploader.  Because of this incident I will no longer be using this breaker.  I will take my money elsewhere.  I will not risk having any of my hits pulled by this breaker damaged in transit because he didn't put the card in a toploader.

I haven't named this breaker because I'm not really in the business of slandering other people (even if I am telling the truth), nor do I want to deal with the drama or the possible backlash of outing this breaker.  The fact that he is losing my business is enough gratification for me.  It's unacceptable that an established box breaker should ship hits without toploaders.  Absolutely unacceptable. 

Four Packs of 2013 Upper Deck Football

I made my first visit to the closest LCS to me.  I had been meaning to go there for a long time but I never really felt the need to since I could buy my cards online and have them shipped to me.  But one day I found myself in the area so I popped into the LCS to have a gander. 

The LCS was a nice little shop, stuffed to the brim with cards.  You would think that the place was a mess because it was so full of stuff but it was actually very well organized and neat. 

I wanted to pick up some 2014 NFL products but the shop was all sold out of its stock of 2014 Upper Deck Football.  I was disappointed.  That's all I really wanted to buy.  It felt wrong to leave the store without buying something since it was my first time to this LCS so I bought four 2013 Upper Deck Football packs.  They were $5.50 each.  That seemed a little expensive to me but having not done any research to compare prices I didn't know any better.  I wish I could say that I got something good out of those four packs but I really didn't.

Star Rookies
Brandon Ford
DeVonte Holloman
D.J. Swearinger
Justin Hunter
Le'Veon Bell
Logan Ryan
Margus Hunt
Terrance Williams

Premiere Prospects
Denard Robinson

Oh, and I got four really nice decoy cards too.  I was hoping for a hit, but I knew that I might not get one.  2013 Upper Deck Football has three hits per box and 20 packs per box.  Whenever you're picking packs from an already-opened hobby box, you're always running the risk of picking packs which don't have a hit in them.  It's very possible that these packs are the leftovers from a hobby box which already had its hits bought by another customer.  I knew this, but what can I say?  I have self-control issues.  I knew I shouldn't have bought any packs. 

At least the base card photography is nice.

And just to demonstrate how it's not worth it to buy loose packs from a hobby box, let's do some more mathematics. 

Right now on Steel City Collectibles, a hobby box of 2013 Upper Deck Football costs $79.95.  We'll just call it $80 even.  If you bought yourself a hobby box, after tax, the total would likely be around $85 to $87 depending on the tax.  Using the $87 box price, that comes out to $4.35 per pack.  Basically, by buying individual packs of cards I ended up paying $1.15 more per pack of cards than had I just bought myself a hobby box. 

What really punches me in the gut even more right now though, is that the price of $79.95 for a box of 2013 Upper Deck Football is its MSRP price.  Boxes for this product can be found and bought for as little as $40 to $50.  Even at the price of $50, that's a per-pack price of $2.50 and a lot less than $5.50 per pack. 

Moral of the story: Buying by the whole hobby box is much more efficient than buying by the pack.